- Domestic prices eased: Ukrainian feed and second-grade wheat prices weakened in early January amid subdued local demand and infrastructure disruptions.
- Export prices resilient: Port-based feed wheat prices firmed slightly, while milling wheat values remained stable, reflecting continued international interest.
- Logistics under pressure: Ongoing power outages and shelling of port infrastructure constrained operations and reduced trader activity.
- Farmer selling limited: Reluctant farmer sales helped partially offset downward pressure by limiting grain availability.
- Outlook neutral to slightly bearish: Domestic headwinds outweigh supportive export trends, but tight supplies and firmer global values are providing a price floor.
Ukrainian Wheat Market Update
The Ukrainian wheat market came under mild downward pressure during the first ten days of January. Production cuts linked to ongoing power outages weighed on consumer demand, while persistent shelling of port infrastructure created logistical bottlenecks that curbed trading activity. These factors combined to soften domestic price levels even as export values at ports showed more resilience.
Despite the challenging environment, overall price declines were limited. Many farmers remained reluctant sellers, keeping grain availability tight. In addition, a modest improvement in international price benchmarks toward the end of the reporting period lent some support to Ukrainian export quotations, especially for feed wheat loaded at ports.
Price Overview
| Segment | Grade | Location/Basis | Price Range | Currency / Unit | Change vs. Previous Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic | Feed wheat | CPT Ukraine | 8,500–9,600 | UAH/t | Slight decline |
| Domestic | Second-grade wheat | CPT Ukraine | 9,500–10,600 | UAH/t | Slight decline |
| Export | Feed wheat | CPT Ukrainian ports | 198–210 | USD/t | +1–3 USD/t |
| Export | Milling wheat | CPT Ukrainian ports | 206–214 | USD/t | Stable |
Domestic wheat prices moved within relatively tight bands. Feed wheat traded between UAH 8,500–9,600/t CPT, while second-grade wheat was quoted at UAH 9,500–10,600/t CPT. These ranges reflect weaker internal demand as industrial users adjusted to power-related production constraints.
At the port level, milling wheat bid prices held steady at USD 206–214/t CPT. Feed wheat showed relative strength, with prices edging up by USD 1–3/t to USD 198–210/t CPT by the end of the period. This divergence underscores firmer export interest in Ukrainian feed wheat even as domestic fundamentals softened.
Market Analysis and Outlook
Neutral to slightly bearish: The Ukrainian wheat market is currently shaped by opposing forces. On the bearish side, infrastructure disruptions, including power outages and damage risks to port assets, are suppressing domestic demand and complicating logistics. These issues limit industrial consumption and dampen trading volumes, exerting downward pressure on internal prices.
On the supportive side, tight farmer selling and firmer export values are preventing a deeper correction. Reluctant sales keep spot grain availability constrained, while stable-to-stronger port quotations signal that international buyers continue to value Ukrainian wheat despite higher operational and risk costs. The contrast between softer domestic prices and more resilient export prices highlights the importance of external demand in setting a floor for the market.
Looking ahead, near-term price direction will depend heavily on the restoration of power supplies and the operational status of key export corridors. Any improvement in port capacity or energy reliability could unlock additional demand and support prices, while further disruptions would likely reinforce the slightly bearish bias in the domestic market.
Source: Market Data
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