- Logistics shift: Ukrainian vegetable oil rail exports fell 10% to 1.598 million tons in 2025, masking a major rerouting of flows.
- Ports gain share: Port-bound rail shipments surged 66% to 926,000 tons, now 58% of total rail-exported vegetable oils.
- Border routes weakened: Rail deliveries to border crossings plunged 44.8% to 672,000 tons, reversing 2024’s land-border dominance.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish for land-routed sunflower oil supply; potentially bullish for port-based export capacity and deep-sea flows.
Market Update
Ukraine’s rail network transported 1.598 million tons of vegetable oils for export in 2025, a 10% year-on-year decline, according to data presented at a recent Ukrzaliznytsia meeting with agricultural market participants. While total volumes eased, the export map changed sharply as port-directed flows expanded and land-border routes contracted.
| Route Type | Year | Rail Volume (mln tons) | Share of Rail Exports | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vegetable oil rail exports | 2025 | 1.598 | 100% | -10.0% |
| Ports | 2025 | 0.926 | 58% | +66.0% |
| Border crossings | 2025 | 0.672 | 42% | -44.8% |
| Ports | 2024 | 0.811 | 29% | — |
| Border crossings | 2024 | 1.980 | 71% | — |
Analysis
The sharp rotation from border crossings to ports signals a fundamental reconfiguration of Ukraine’s sunflower oil export logistics. The 66% surge in port-directed rail volumes suggests improved maritime corridor reliability, additional berth availability, or more competitive freight economics for deep-sea destinations. This is likely to support larger, ocean-bound parcel sizes and potentially tighter basis levels at export terminals.
Conversely, the near-45% slump in rail shipments to border crossings points to either softer demand from neighboring European buyers, logistical bottlenecks at land checkpoints, or a deliberate shift by traders toward seaborne routes. The overall 10% drop in rail-exported vegetable oil volumes raises the question of whether Ukrainian crush and exportable surplus are tightening or if competing Black Sea origins are capturing a larger share of global demand.
For near-term pricing, the picture is neutral to slightly bearish for sunflower oil availability via traditional land routes into Europe, where volumes are clearly under pressure. At the same time, the build-out and heavier utilization of port capacity can be viewed as bullish for Ukraine’s medium-term export capability, especially if maritime logistics continue to normalize and insurers maintain coverage for Black Sea routes.
Source: Market Data
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