- Bullish: French Senalia terminal targets a 111% jump in 2025/26 grain exports to 3.8 million tons, driven by strong feed barley demand and expanded Middle East routes, including new sales to Iraq.
- Bearish: Ukrainian grain exports in 2024/25 are down 31% year-on-year to 16.376 million tons, with sharply lower January volumes, signaling ongoing logistical and production headwinds for Black Sea exports.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance
Ukraine’s grain and leguminous exports reached 16.376 million tons from the start of the 2024/25 marketing year through January 12, a 31% decline versus 23.904 million tons a year earlier. January shipments slowed to 946,000 tons compared with 1.672 million tons in the same period last season, underscoring persistent logistical constraints and reduced exportable supplies.
| Commodity | January 2025 Exports (tons) | 2024/25 Season-to-Date (tons) | January 2024 Exports (tons) | 2023/24 Season-to-Date (tons) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total Grain & Legumes | 946,000 | 16,376,000 | 1,672,000 | 23,904,000 |
| Corn | 733,000 | 6,689,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Wheat | 210,000 | 8,115,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Barley | 2,000 | 1,321,000 | N/A | N/A |
| Flour | 1,000 | 35,300 | N/A | N/A |
Corn dominated January flows at 733,000 tons, taking season-to-date exports to 6.689 million tons. Wheat volumes were comparatively muted, with 210,000 tons shipped in January and 8.115 million tons so far this season. Barley exports were marginal at 2,000 tons for the month, bringing the cumulative figure to 1.321 million tons. Flour exports totaled 35,300 tons for the season, including 1,000 tons in January.
French Senalia Terminal: Barley-Led Recovery
At the Rouen export hub, French terminal operator Senalia projects total shipments of 3.8 million tons for the 2025/26 season (July–June), more than doubling last season’s 1.8 million tons that were hampered by rain-damaged crops. From July through December 2025, the terminal has already handled 1.7 million tons, indicating a strong front-loaded export program.
| Season (Senalia) | Total Shipments (million tons) | Change vs. Previous Season | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 (previous) | 1.8 | Baseline | Rain-damaged French crops |
| 2025/26 (current forecast) | 3.8 | +111% | Improved harvest; strong feed barley demand |
| 2025/26 (July–December actual) | 1.7 | N/A | Already shipped in first half of season |
Senalia credits improved harvest conditions and robust appetite for feed barley as key drivers of the rebound. The operator is broadening its Middle East and North Africa footprint, with planned feed barley shipments to Iraq, a non-traditional destination for French origin. According to Alain Charville, Head of Grain Exports at Senalia, competitive pricing and multiple supply routes are enabling this geographic shift as Chinese demand for barley softens.
Market Implications and Freight Dynamics
The sharp year-on-year drop in Ukrainian exports points to continued pressure on Black Sea logistics and availability, particularly for wheat. Reduced Ukrainian wheat flows could open pricing opportunities for EU and other origins into key import markets. At the same time, France’s aggressive push in feed barley—especially into Iraq and wider MENA—may heighten competition with Russian and Ukrainian barley, potentially eroding Black Sea market share in North Africa.
Rising French export volumes should support utilization of European short-sea and regional freight, potentially weighing on freight rates in these corridors. If Iraqi demand scales up, larger parcel sizes may underpin Panamax employment from Northwest Europe, while any displacement of Black Sea barley in MENA would be modestly bearish for regional export premiums and could redirect Ukrainian and Russian volumes toward alternative buyers.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply