- Brazil–Russia Shift: Brazilian soybean exports to Russia plunged 63% to 150,000 tons, cutting soybeans’ share of bilateral trade to just 6.5%.
- China Buying U.S. Beans: Sinograin booked 600,000+ tons of U.S. soybeans for Apr–May, pushing total commitments toward 10–12 million tons despite cheaper Brazilian offers.
- Sustainability Premium: Bunge’s 12,000-ton traceable soybean meal deal and 345,000-hectare regenerative program highlight growing demand for low‑carbon, fully traceable soy supply chains.
- Black Sea Impact: Displaced South American volumes and China’s U.S. pivot are neutral to bearish for Black Sea oilseed exporters as global competition for demand intensifies.
Brazil–Russia Soybean Trade Dynamics
Brazilian soybean exports to Russia have fallen 63% since the start of the current season, dropping to an all-time low of 150,000 tons. According to OleoScope, soybeans now account for only 6.5% of Brazil’s total shipments to Russia, marking the first major setback in this trade flow.
Despite weaker soybean volumes, overall Brazil–Russia trade hit a record $12.4 billion, up 9.3% year-on-year. The expansion is driven primarily by Brazilian cattle exports, which make up 31% of the bilateral basket, and coffee, which contributes another 30%.
| Trade Flow | Volume / Value | Change | Share of Bilateral Trade |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brazilian soybean exports to Russia | 150,000 tons | -63% (season-on-season) | 6.5% |
| Total Brazil–Russia trade | $12.4 billion | +9.3% YoY | 100% |
| Cattle share of exports | n/a | n/a | 31% |
| Coffee share of exports | n/a | n/a | 30% |
Chinese U.S. Soybean Procurement
On 9 January, China’s state-owned Sinograin purchased at least 600,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for April–May shipment. This moves Beijing closer to its pledge to buy around 12 million tons of U.S. soybeans by the end of February, with current total commitments estimated near 10 million tons.
Eight of the latest cargoes are scheduled to load from the U.S. Gulf Coast, with the remainder from the Pacific Northwest, following a similar 10-cargo purchase on 5 January. The buying spree continues even though Brazilian soybeans are currently cheaper and the country is heading toward a record harvest.
China is simultaneously managing domestic supply via a 1.1 million-ton soybean auction set for 13 January, indicating efforts to balance strategic imports with local surplus management.
| Item | Volume | Timing | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Latest Sinograin U.S. purchase | >600,000 tons | Apr–May shipment | Booked on 9 January |
| Prior Sinograin U.S. purchase | 10 cargoes (approx.) | Forward shipment | Booked on 5 January |
| China’s pledged U.S. soybean buys | 12 million tons | By end-February | Strategic commitment |
| China state auction (domestic) | 1.1 million tons | 13 January | Stock management |
Sustainability and Traceable Supply Chains
Bunge Global SA has committed to supplying 12,000 tons of fully traceable soybean meal to Mantiqueira Brasil for poultry feed, using a blockchain-verified chain of custody. The verified supply chain shows a 40–70% reduction in carbon footprint versus the Brazilian market average.
Bunge’s regenerative agriculture program now covers 345,000 hectares in Brazil, integrating soil health, reduced-emission practices, and traceability with commercial demand from protein producers and retailers seeking lower-carbon ingredients.
| Initiative | Scale / Volume | Impact |
|---|---|---|
| Traceable soybean meal supply to Mantiqueira Brasil | 12,000 tons | Supports sustainable poultry feed production |
| Carbon footprint vs. market average | n/a | 40–70% lower |
| Bunge regenerative agriculture program | 345,000 hectares | Expands low-carbon, traceable soy supply |
Market Implications for Black Sea Exporters
The steep reduction in Brazilian soybean shipments to Russia opens some space for alternative origins, but the absolute volume (150,000 tons) remains modest. The more consequential driver is China’s continued prioritization of U.S. soybeans, which may displace South American supplies into other destinations and weigh on global soybean premiums.
For Black Sea oilseed exporters, this configuration is neutral to mildly bearish: increased competition from diverted South American volumes could pressure prices and margins, particularly in price-sensitive markets. At the same time, the rapid development of certified, low-carbon supply chains in Brazil underscores the need for Black Sea producers to consider sustainability attributes to remain competitive in differentiated segments.
Source: Market Data
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