- Wheat & corn supported: U.S. export commitments are running well ahead of last year, tightening global exportable supplies and providing a neutral to slightly bullish backdrop for Black Sea wheat and corn values.
- Soybeans lagging: U.S. soybean exports are only 64% of USDA targets versus an 82% average pace, keeping oilseed sentiment more cautious despite fresh U.S. and Chinese buying.
- Inventory risk: Monday’s USDA grain stocks report could shift market direction sharply if wheat or corn inventories deviate from trade expectations.
- Oilseeds substitution: Weak Canadian canola exports may divert some demand toward Black Sea sunflower oil and other vegetable oils.
Global Grain Market Overview
Global grain markets consolidated ahead of the USDA grain inventory report due Monday, January 12, as futures markets showed only modest moves while export data remained robust for U.S. wheat and corn but softer for soybeans. For Black Sea exporters, the current setup looks neutral to slightly bullish, with strong U.S. export flows tightening global availability.
U.S. Wheat Market
U.S. wheat futures traded mixed as traders squared positions before the USDA stocks release. Export performance is outperforming expectations, with commitments and shipments both ahead of last year and above average shipment pace, signaling firm international demand and limited global exportable supplies.
| Contract / Metric | Value | Change / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT March SRW | $190.05/mt ($5.17-1/4/bu) | -0.15% |
| KC March HRW | $194.83/mt ($5.30-1/4/bu) | Unchanged |
| Minneapolis March HRS | $208.88/mt ($5.68-1/2/bu) | -3.34 cents |
| U.S. wheat export commitments | 20.228 Mmt | +18% YoY; 83% of USDA forecast |
| U.S. wheat export shipments | 15.16 Mmt | +21% YoY; 61% of USDA forecast (vs 57% avg pace) |
| Trade estimate, Dec 1 wheat stocks | 1.636 billion bu | Range: 1.59–1.696 billion bu |
Solid U.S. wheat shipments, already ahead of average pace, underscore strong global demand. If USDA stocks come in below trade expectations, it would likely add further support to global wheat values, including Black Sea origins; higher-than-expected stocks would temper this supportive tone.
U.S. Corn Market
Corn futures eased slightly, but the export picture remains notably strong. Commitments are up 30% year-on-year and already cover nearly two-thirds of USDA’s annual export forecast. South Korean demand through recent tenders highlights continued appetite for competitively priced U.S. corn.
| Contract / Metric | Value | Change / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT March corn | $175.49/mt ($4.45-3/4/bu) | -0.06% |
| U.S. corn export commitments | 50.895 Mmt | +30% YoY; 63% of USDA forecast (vs 61% avg pace) |
| U.S. corn export shipments | 27.414 Mmt | 34% of USDA export forecast |
| South Korea corn purchases | 339,000 mt | Via recent tenders |
| Trade estimate, Dec 1 corn stocks | 12.962 billion bu | Market focus for Monday’s report |
The strong U.S. sales pace signals tightness in global feed grain availability. For Black Sea exporters, firm U.S. demand tends to support regional price levels, though any surprise on the upside in U.S. stocks could briefly cap rallies or trigger corrections.
U.S. Soybean Market
Soybean futures posted modest gains, backed by fresh export sales, including a confirmed U.S. sale and additional Chinese purchases. However, total U.S. export commitments remain well behind the usual seasonal pace relative to USDA’s target, which keeps overall sentiment more cautious versus grains.
| Contract / Metric | Value | Change / Notes |
|---|---|---|
| CBOT March soybeans | $390.40/mt ($10.62-1/2/bu) | +0.12% |
| USDA-confirmed private sale | 198,000 mt | Export sale reported |
| Additional Chinese purchases | 10 cargoes | For Apr–May delivery |
| U.S. soybean export sales | 28.576 Mmt | 64% of USDA forecast (vs 82% avg pace) |
| Sinograin soybean auction | 1.1 Mmt | Imported soybeans, auction on Jan 13 |
Despite new deals, the lagging pace of U.S. soybean exports relative to USDA goals suggests downside risk if demand does not accelerate. This contrasts with the more supportive tone in wheat and corn and may shift some oilseed demand toward alternative vegetable oils.
European Grain Markets
European grain futures edged higher, mirroring the cautious firmness seen in U.S. markets. Gains were modest but point to a generally steady tone ahead of the U.S. data release.
| Contract | Price | Change |
|---|---|---|
| MATIF March milling wheat | $223.45/mt (€191.75/mt) | +0.13% |
| MATIF March corn | $223.15/mt (€191.50/mt) | +0.13% |
These small increases indicate a cautiously supportive European backdrop. Any bullish surprise in U.S. inventory data would likely translate into further strength in MATIF wheat and corn, while a bearish report could trigger consolidation or mild corrections.
Oilseeds: Canadian Canola and Black Sea Implications
Canadian canola exports remain significantly below last year’s pace, widening the gap in available exportable supplies. This underperformance may re-channel some demand toward other vegetable oils, including Black Sea sunflower oil, especially if end users seek to diversify coverage.
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Weekly Canadian canola exports (week ending Jan 4) | 147,800 tonnes | Up from 121,000 tonnes prior week |
| YTD Canadian canola exports | 2.8 Mmt | Vs 4.7 Mmt in same period last year |
The roughly 40% year-on-year shortfall in Canadian canola exports points to tighter canola availability and potential substitution toward sunflower and other oils, which may provide incremental support to Black Sea oilseed complex pricing.
Outlook Ahead of USDA Inventory Report
Heading into Monday’s USDA grain stocks release, the combination of strong U.S. wheat and corn exports and subdued soybean performance sets a divergent tone across the complex. For Black Sea exporters, the environment is neutral to slightly bullish for grains, with scope for further upside if U.S. stocks surprise on the low side. Conversely, higher-than-expected inventories would likely cap rallies and could trigger profit-taking across global wheat and corn markets.
Source: Market Data
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