- Ukrainian agricultural road exports fell 65% in January to 3,700 tons/day from 10,400 tons/day in December.
- First-week January shipments totaled 22,800 tons, nearly three times lower than December’s 81,200 tons for the same period.
- Seasonal weakness and border clearance inefficiencies are the main drivers of the contraction.
- A gradual recovery in volumes is expected in the second half of January as queues and logistics normalize.
Ukrainian Road Freight Volumes Plunge in January
Ukrainian agricultural road freight activity saw a sharp slowdown at the start of the year. Average daily shipments dropped from 10,400 tons per day in December to just 3,700 tons per day in January, a decline of 65% month-on-month, according to Spike Brokers.
The contraction was visible from the opening days of 2025. During the first week of January, cumulative shipments reached only 22,800 tons, compared with 81,200 tons moved by road during a comparable period in December. This underscores how quickly and deeply seasonal and operational factors weighed on export flows.
Road Freight Volume Comparison
| Period | Average / Total Volume | Unit | Change vs. December |
|---|---|---|---|
| December (average daily) | 10,400 | tons/day | Baseline |
| January (average daily) | 3,700 | tons/day | -65% |
| December (first-week total) | 81,200 | tons | Baseline |
| January (first-week total) | 22,800 | tons | ~3x lower |
Market Drivers and Logistics Conditions
Industry participants report a combination of seasonal demand weakness, post-holiday slowdown, and significant inconsistencies in border clearance operations. These factors have collectively reduced the throughput of Ukraine’s land export corridors for agricultural products, particularly processed goods destined for Western European markets.
While low activity levels are typical in early January, the scale of the decline points to tighter-than-usual logistics constraints. Underutilized capacity may lead to more competitive road freight rates in the near term, but it also caps the volumes that can be moved out of the country during a critical period for exporters managing contract obligations and cash flow.
Short-Term Outlook: Neutral to Bearish
From a short-term perspective, the outlook for Ukrainian agricultural road freight is neutral to bearish. A rebound in volumes is expected in the second half of January, contingent on the normalization of border queues and renewed commercial demand for processed products. Until these factors improve, traders and logistics coordinators should anticipate continued volatility in transit times and limited effective export capacity, even where trucks and routes are technically available.
Source: Market Data
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