- Bullish: Soybean oil and soybean meal prices strengthened across Brazil, the US, EU, and China, with Dalian China soybeans and FOB Brazil soybean oil posting the largest gains, signaling robust demand in the broader oilseed complex.
- Bearish: Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea and sunflower meal CIF France both declined, pointing to pressure on Black Sea sunflower processing margins and potential oversupply or weaker export demand from the region.
Global Vegetable Oils Market Update
Global vegetable oil markets showed mixed movements, with Black Sea sunflower oil under pressure while soybean oil benchmarks advanced. Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea fell $25.00/t to $1,195.00/t as of January 9, 2026, compared with $1,220.00/t on December 29, 2025. In contrast, sunflower oil CIF Mumbai India strengthened by $29.85/t to $1,363.15/t, highlighting firmer import values into Asia despite weaker origin prices in the Black Sea.
Soybean oil prices climbed across major origins. FOB Brazil posted the steepest gain, rising $43.88/t to $1,122.96/t. US CBOT soybean oil increased $10.58/t to $1,086.00/t, Dalian China moved up $28.19/t to $1,179.27/t, and FOB EU soybean oil added a modest $2.88/t to reach $1,273.71/t. Among other oils, rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands eased $8.21/t to $1,221.92/t. Palm oil FOB Malaysia slipped $12.44/t to $1,004.95/t, while RBD palm oil Dalian China rose $8.40/t to $1,226.28/t. Coconut oil FOB Indonesia was unchanged at $2,722.71/t.
| Vegetable Oil | Location / Basis | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | $1,195.00 | -25.00 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Sunflower oil | CIF Mumbai, India | $1,363.15 | +29.85 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean oil | FOB Brazil | $1,122.96 | +43.88 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean oil | CBOT US | $1,086.00 | +10.58 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean oil | Dalian China | $1,179.27 | +28.19 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | $1,273.71 | +2.88 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Rapeseed oil | FOB Netherlands | $1,221.92 | -8.21 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | $1,004.95 | -12.44 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| RBD palm oil | Dalian China | $1,226.28 | +8.40 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Coconut oil | FOB Indonesia | $2,722.71 | 0.00 | 9 Jan 2026 |
Global Meals Market Update
Meal markets diverged, with sunflower meal underperforming while soybean and rapeseed meals gained. Sunflower meal CIF France recorded the sharpest decline, down $18.06/t to $238.57/t for both January and March delivery. The weakness in sunflower meal aligns with the broader softness in Black Sea sunflower oil values.
Soybean meal prices trended higher across all surveyed regions. FOB Brazil soybean meal rose $9.75/t to $341.88/t, CIF EU increased $7.96/t to $387.06/t, and Dalian China gained $4.38/t to $447.74/t. US CBOT soybean meal edged up by $1.32/t to $330.69/t. Rapeseed meal FOB EU also firmed, adding $4.38/t to reach $232.75/t.
| Meal | Location / Basis | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower meal | CIF France (Jan & Mar) | $238.57 | -18.06 | Jan & Mar 2026 |
| Soybean meal | FOB Brazil | $341.88 | +9.75 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean meal | CIF EU | $387.06 | +7.96 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean meal | Dalian China | $447.74 | +4.38 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybean meal | CBOT US | $330.69 | +1.32 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | $232.75 | +4.38 | 9 Jan 2026 |
Global Oilseeds Market Update
Oilseed prices were generally firm, led by strong gains in Chinese soybean futures. Soybeans FOB Brazil increased $5.07/t to $408.45/t for January and February delivery. In the US, CBOT soybeans edged lower by $0.37/t to $385.25/t, reflecting more muted sentiment. Dalian China soybeans posted the most notable move, surging $34.92/t to $621.02/t, underscoring robust demand or tightening availability in the Chinese market. Rapeseed MATIF France also strengthened, rising $15.75/t to $548.12/t.
| Oilseed | Location / Contract | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Date / Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soybeans | FOB Brazil (Jan–Feb) | $408.45 | +5.07 | Jan–Feb 2026 |
| Soybeans | CBOT US | $385.25 | -0.37 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Soybeans | Dalian China | $621.02 | +34.92 | 9 Jan 2026 |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | $548.12 | +15.75 | 9 Jan 2026 |
Market Analysis and Outlook
The decline in sunflower oil FOB Black Sea suggests mounting bearish pressure, likely tied to oversupply or softer export demand from key Black Sea origins. The simultaneous rise in sunflower oil CIF Mumbai, despite weaker origin values, indicates that freight, logistics, or localized demand in Asia are supporting landed prices rather than underlying strength at the Black Sea.
Strength across soybean oil, soybean meal, and Chinese oilseed markets highlights a firmer tone in the broader oilseed complex, offering only limited support to Black Sea competitiveness. The combination of lower sunflower oil and sunflower meal prices points to compressed processing margins in the region. Market participants should watch whether this weakness proves temporary or develops into a more sustained trend that could alter farmer selling behavior and the pace of export program execution in Ukraine and Russia.
Source: Market Data
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