- Export prices edge higher: Ukrainian rapeseed export values strengthened to USD 545/t CPT-port amid tight EU supplies and farmer selling restraint.
- Crush margins under pressure: Domestic processing bids fell to UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT as plants face weaker margins and shift toward sunflower and soybean.
- Forward curve turns discounted: 2026 harvest forward prices are about USD 30/t below spot levels, reflecting weather risk and demand uncertainty.
- Balanced but cautious outlook: EU tightness is offset by higher Australian and Canadian canola exports, keeping the tone neutral to slightly bullish.
Market Update
The Black Sea rapeseed export market posted a modest uptick, with Ukrainian rapeseed currently quoted around USD 545/t CPT-port. This firming trend is closely linked to the EU market, where farmers are limiting raw material sales and Ukrainian supplies remain relatively tight. These factors are providing a floor to prices despite growing competition from other origins.
Counterbalancing the European tightness, canola exports from Australia and Canada are rising, gradually pressuring global rapeseed and canola values. This additional supply from the Southern Hemisphere is tempering further upside in Black Sea export quotations and contributing to a more balanced global supply picture.
Forward positions for the 2026 harvest are trading at an average discount of about USD 30/t versus current spot levels. Market participants cite weather-related production risks and broader macro uncertainty as key factors behind the weaker deferred values, with buyers demanding a discount to compensate for forward risk.
On the domestic processing side, Ukrainian crush plants have lowered their bid prices to roughly UAH 23,000–24,000/t CPT. This adjustment reflects shrinking crush margins and a strategic pivot toward alternative feedstocks. Many facilities are planning to prioritize sunflower and soybean crushing, which currently offer relatively better processing economics than rapeseed.
Price Snapshot
| Market Segment | Price Level | Basis / Term | Market Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ukrainian rapeseed export | USD 545/t | CPT-port, nearby | Gradual strengthening on EU tightness |
| 2026 rapeseed forward | ≈ USD 515/t | CPT-port, 2026 harvest | ~USD 30/t discount to spot on weather risk |
| Domestic rapeseed bids (Ukraine) | UAH 23,000–24,000/t | CPT processing plant | Lower margins; shift to sunflower & soy |
Analysis and Trading Implications
The current setup is neutral to slightly bullish for Ukrainian rapeseed. Export prices are supported by EU farmer holding and limited Ukrainian availability, but any significant rally is capped by competitive canola flows from Australia and Canada. This tug-of-war is keeping the market in a tight range rather than driving a strong breakout.
The growing discount on 2026 forward positions signals caution around production and weather risk, with buyers reluctant to pay today’s spot values for deferred deliveries. At the same time, the divergence between firmer export prices and softer domestic crush bids underscores margin compression in the processing sector, which could divert more volume toward export channels in the near term if the spread remains attractive for traders.
Source: Market Data
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