- Export surge: Argentina’s 2025 soybean exports are projected to jump 172% year-on-year to over 12.5 million tons, led by Chinese demand.
- China-driven demand: China accounts for 85% of December 2025 shipments and an estimated 11.6 million tons of full-year imports from Argentina.
- Mixed fundamentals: Slower planting progress and lower soybean oil and meal exports contrast with improved crop quality.
- Black Sea impact: Limited direct effect on Black Sea oilseeds, but tighter Q2 2026 supplies and weaker Argentine meal exports may support Black Sea values and market share.
Argentina Soybean Export Performance
Argentina’s soybean exports accelerated sharply in late 2025. Preliminary December data from Oil World indicate about 1 million tons of soybeans shipped, with China taking 0.85 million tons and Vietnam 0.14 million tons. For the full year 2025, exports are projected to exceed 12.5 million tons, up from 4.6 million tons in 2024, driven overwhelmingly by Chinese buying.
| Period | Destination | Soybean Exports (million tons) |
|---|---|---|
| Dec 2025 | Total | 1.00 |
| Dec 2025 | China | 0.85 |
| Dec 2025 | Vietnam | 0.14 |
| Full-year 2024 | Total | 4.60 |
| Full-year 2025 (proj.) | Total | >12.50 |
| Full-year 2024 | China | 4.10 |
| Full-year 2025 (proj.) | China | 11.60 |
Soybean Derivative Exports
While raw bean shipments expanded, Argentina’s processed soybean products weakened in December. Soybean oil exports declined to 0.5 million tons from 0.59 million tons a year earlier, and soybean meal exports fell to 2.1 million tons from 2.44 million tons.
| Month | Product | Exports 2024 (million tons) | Exports 2025 (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| December | Soybean oil | 0.59 | 0.50 |
| December | Soybean meal | 2.44 | 2.10 |
Planting Progress and Crop Conditions
Planting is lagging behind last year’s pace. As of December 30, Argentina’s Ministry of Agriculture reported 86% of planned soybean acreage sown, compared with 93% at the same time in 2024. Heavy rainfall in northern oilseed-growing regions has delayed fieldwork but simultaneously supported crop development, with 68% of the crop rated good to excellent versus 62% a year earlier.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Planting progress (Dec 30) | 93% | 86% |
| Crop rated good–excellent | 62% | 68% |
Implications for Black Sea Oilseed Markets
The surge in Argentina’s soybean exports to China is broadly neutral for Black Sea sunflower and rapeseed markets in the near term. However, the delayed Argentine planting schedule could tighten global oilseed availability into Q2 2026, offering some support to Black Sea oilseed prices. At the same time, lower Argentine soybean meal exports may open space for Black Sea sunflower meal suppliers to expand sales into shared destination markets.
Source: Market Data
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