- Bullish (Rapeseed): February rapeseed futures jumped 2.4% to €462.75/tonne on bargain buying after December’s 16‑month low and supply concerns following damage to Bunge’s Dnipro vegetable oil plant.
- Bearish (Wheat): March Euronext wheat eased 0.5% to €188.25/tonne under pressure from abundant global supplies and increased Argentine export competition.
Market Overview
Euronext wheat futures slipped on January 5 as ample global grain availability continued to cap prices. The benchmark March contract settled at €188.25 ($220.53) per tonne, down 0.5% on the day, with aggressive Argentine export offers weighing on Western European competitiveness.
A softer euro against the US dollar offered some support by improving the relative appeal of euro-denominated wheat, helping to limit further downside. Nonetheless, the combination of large world stocks and heightened export competition kept the tone neutral to slightly bearish for European and Black Sea wheat exporters.
In contrast, rapeseed futures on Euronext staged a strong rebound. February rapeseed gained 2.4% to €462.75 per tonne, supported by bargain hunting after the market hit a 16‑month low in December. The rally was reinforced by fresh supply concerns after a Russian attack damaged Bunge’s vegetable oil facility in Dnipro, Ukraine, raising questions over regional crushing capacity and underpinning European oilseed prices.
Price Snapshot
| Contract | Exchange | Month | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Euronext | March | €188.25/tonne ($220.53/tonne) |
-0.5% | Pressured by ample global supply and Argentine competition |
| Rapeseed | Euronext | February | €462.75/tonne | +2.4% | Rebound from 16‑month low; supported by bargain buying and Ukraine supply risks |
Impact on Black Sea and European Flows
The current setup is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat. Cheaper Argentine origin is intensifying competition in key import markets, potentially eroding market share for Russian and Ukrainian exporters. At the same time, euro weakness could tilt some demand back toward EU wheat if dollar‑denominated Black Sea offers become relatively more expensive for buyers.
For oilseeds, the attack on Ukrainian crushing infrastructure underscores ongoing geopolitical risk. While damage to processing capacity in Dnipro may curb regional product exports, it could increase the availability of unprocessed oilseeds from the Black Sea. This dynamic, coupled with recent lows in rapeseed pricing, has encouraged bargain buying and lent support to European rapeseed futures.
Source: Market Data
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