- Russian wheat export duty cut to zero: Government reduces wheat export duty from 97.3 rubles/ton to zero for January 14–20, easing costs for exporters.
- Indicative wheat price edges higher: Wheat reference price rises to $229.2/ton from $228.4/ton, indicating slightly firmer market conditions.
- Barley and corn remain duty-free: Export duties for barley and corn stay at zero, supporting competitive Black Sea grain pricing.
- Overall bias: Neutral to slightly bullish: Duty relief supports export flows, while modest price moves suggest stable domestic supply.
Russia Eliminates Wheat Export Duty
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the wheat export duty to zero for the period January 14–20, down from 97.3 rubles per ton that applied until January 13. This temporary measure removes a direct cost component for Russian wheat exporters and could enhance their competitiveness in key import markets.
The duty is calculated using an indicative wheat price, which has inched up to $229.2 per ton from the previous $228.4 per ton. Despite the slight increase, pricing signals remain broadly stable, suggesting no immediate stress on domestic wheat supply.
Grain Prices and Export Duties
While wheat duties have been cut to zero, export duties for barley and corn were already at zero and will remain so over the same period. Indicative prices for these grains have seen only marginal adjustments, reflecting a steady pricing environment across Russia’s main export grains.
| Commodity | Export Duty (Jan 14–20) | Indicative Price ($/ton) | Previous Indicative Price ($/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 0 rubles/ton (from 97.3) | 229.2 | 228.4 |
| Barley | 0 rubles/ton | 219.6 | 219.3 |
| Corn | 0 rubles/ton | 200.6 | 200.9 |
Market Impact and Trading View
Bias: Neutral to Slightly Bullish. The elimination of the wheat export duty is modestly supportive for Russian export flows, reducing FOB costs and potentially increasing Russia’s share in Black Sea and Mediterranean wheat demand. The small uptick in indicative wheat prices, alongside stable barley and corn references, points to balanced domestic availability rather than tightness.
With barley and corn also carrying zero export duties, Russia’s grain complex remains competitively priced for international buyers. Traders should monitor near-term export volumes and any follow-up policy signals to gauge whether this duty structure will persist beyond the current assessment window.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply