- Russian wheat exports raised: SovEcon increased its 2025/26 wheat export forecast to 44.6 million tonnes, lifting total grain exports to 52.9 million tonnes.
- Near-record shipment pace: November and December wheat exports reached 5.1 and 4.2 million tonnes respectively, near all-time monthly highs.
- Margins turn positive: Falling domestic prices and stable $230/tonne FOB values have shifted export margins from negative to slightly positive.
- Broader grain strength: Barley and corn export forecasts were also raised to 3.8 and 2.5 million tonnes, respectively.
- Neutral to bearish for prices: Higher Russian export availability adds to global supply and keeps competitive pressure on other exporters.
Market Update
SovEcon has upgraded its outlook for Russian grain exports in the 2025/26 marketing year, driven by exceptionally strong shipment performance and improving export economics. The consultancy now projects wheat exports at 44.6 million tonnes, an increase of 0.4 million tonnes from its previous estimate, with total grain exports raised to 52.9 million tonnes.
Shipment momentum has been notably strong. November wheat exports surged to 5.1 million tonnes, well above the prior November record of 4.3 million tonnes. December exports are estimated at 4.2 million tonnes, close to the all-time monthly record of 4.3 million tonnes, underscoring robust demand and efficient logistics.
According to SovEcon CEO Andrey Sizov, the export campaign began slowly this season but has since accelerated to near-record levels as importers re-entered the market. Buyers who previously delayed purchases in anticipation of lower prices have returned, supporting the recent surge in export volumes.
Export Economics and Price Dynamics
Export margins for Russian wheat have shifted from negative to slightly positive. Domestic prices in Russia continue to decline, while international FOB values have held steady around $230 per tonne. This combination has improved the profitability of exports and encouraged sustained high shipment levels.
| Metric | 2025/26 Estimate | Change vs Previous |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat exports | 44.6 million tonnes | +0.4 million tonnes |
| Barley exports | 3.8 million tonnes | +0.2 million tonnes |
| Corn exports | 2.5 million tonnes | +0.1 million tonnes |
| Total grain exports | 52.9 million tonnes | +0.3 million tonnes |
| Commodity | Price (FOB) | Margin Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Russian Wheat (FOB) | $230/tonne | Shifted from negative to slightly positive |
Market Implications
The revised Russian export outlook is neutral to bearish for global wheat prices. Increased Russian availability adds to seaborne supply and keeps pressure on competing origins such as the EU, US, and Black Sea neighbors. With Russia maintaining aggressive participation in export markets at current FOB levels, buyers are likely to benefit from ongoing competition, while rival exporters face continued pricing and margin stress.
Source: Market Data
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