- Prices: Ukrainian sunflower seeds plunged by over UAH 1,000/ton to a season-low of UAH 26,000–27,600/ton.
- Supply: Harvest reached only 9 million tons versus 11 million tons expected, leaving a 2 million ton shortfall for processors.
- Trading: Farmer selling slowed sharply as buyers and sellers adopted wait-and-see positions amid weak demand.
- Logistics: Export constraints and holiday season lull are limiting sunflower oil shipments and weighing on market activity.
- Outlook: Bearish near term, with potential for recovery if farmer selling resumes and export logistics improve.
Market Overview
The Ukrainian sunflower seeds market witnessed a steep price collapse last week. According to APK-Inform monitoring data, domestic prices dropped by more than UAH 1,000 per ton, pushing quotations to the lowest levels of the 2025/26 marketing season. Across most regions, prices ranged between UAH 26,000 and 27,600 per ton, with only isolated deals reported at UAH 28,000–28,300 per ton. Demand-side bids were even lower, at UAH 25,000–25,400 per ton.
Price and Demand Snapshot
| Indicator | Range / Value | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Domestic sunflower seed price (main range) | UAH 26,000–27,600/ton | Lowest level of the 2025/26 season |
| Isolated sunflower seed quotes | UAH 28,000–28,300/ton | Limited higher-priced offers |
| Indexed demand levels | UAH 25,000–25,400/ton | Deeply discounted buyer bids |
Supply, Harvest, and Processing Balance
| Metric | Volume (million tons) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Expected sunflower seed harvest | 11.0 | Pre-season projection |
| Actual sunflower seed harvest | 9.0 | Final result for 2025/26 |
| Shortfall vs. expectations | 2.0 | Deficit for domestic processors |
The completed sunflower seed harvest reached just 9 million tons, well below the previously expected 11 million tons. This 2 million ton gap implies a notable deficit for domestic processors over the course of the marketing year. Despite this tighter supply profile, the current market is behaving counterintuitively, with prices under heavy pressure rather than finding support from the reduced crop size.
The price slump has had a direct impact on trading behavior. Farmers, facing sharply lower bids, have scaled back sales volumes and are increasingly holding stocks on-farm in anticipation of more favorable prices later in the season. This has contributed to a marked slowdown in physical market liquidity.
Export Logistics and Sunflower Oil Shipments
| Export Indicator | Volume (tons) | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Contracted sunflower oil exports | 410,000 | Total volume booked |
| Sunflower oil shipped to date | 275,000 | Underperformance vs. contracts |
| Projected maximum monthly exports | ≤ 350,000 | Constrained by logistics and demand |
Logistical bottlenecks remain a critical drag on the market. Of the 410,000 tons of sunflower oil contracted for export, only about 275,000 tons have been shipped so far. Current projections suggest that monthly exports are unlikely to exceed 350,000 tons in the near term, reflecting ongoing infrastructure, routing, and operational constraints.
The traditional holiday season lull is amplifying these issues. Many buyers and sellers are taking a cautious stance, deferring fresh deals until visibility improves on export flows and post-holiday demand. This combination of logistical friction and seasonal slowdown is preventing the domestic market from fully reflecting the tighter underlying seed balance.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Bias: Bearish (near term). The Ukrainian sunflower seed market currently faces a paradox: structurally tighter supply due to a poor harvest, yet falling prices driven by weak trading activity and export constraints. The 2 million ton processing deficit points to potential supply tightness later in the marketing year, but for now, limited export capacity and farmer reluctance to sell at current levels are capping any upward price reaction.
Looking ahead, two key catalysts could alter the price trajectory: a shift in farmer selling behavior in response to cash flow needs, and any improvement in export logistics that unlocks additional sunflower oil shipments. A sustained recovery in export flows, combined with the underlying harvest shortfall, would likely provide a stronger foundation for price stabilization or gradual recovery.
Source: Market Data
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