- Bullish: Russia’s 36.5% hike in sunflower oil export duty and Black Sea tensions are lifting global sunflower oil prices and tightening forward supply into early 2026.
- Bearish: Zero export duty on sunflower meal and record Russian oilseed harvests partially offset tightness by supporting byproduct availability and overall vegoil supply.
Russia Lifts Sunflower Oil Export Duty as Black Sea Risks Mount
Russia’s Ministry of Agriculture will raise the sunflower oil export duty to 9,298 rubles per ton in January 2026, a 36.5% increase versus December. At the same time, the export duty on sunflower meal will be reduced to zero, the first such move since October 2022, signaling a policy shift favoring meal exports while tempering outbound flows of higher-value oil.
Spot and forward markets have already reacted. Indicative export prices for January are assessed at $1,200 per ton for sunflower oil, up from $1,169 per ton in December. According to ProZerno monitoring, Russian sunflower oil spot prices jumped from $1,220 to $1,280 per ton, as escalating military activity in the Black Sea region raised freight risk premiums and amplified supply concerns.
| Item | Period | Price / Duty | Previous | Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil export duty (Russia) | Jan 2026 | 9,298 RUB/t | Dec 2025 level | +36.5% |
| Sunflower meal export duty (Russia) | Jan 2026 | 0 RUB/t | Non-zero since Oct 2022 | First zero duty since Oct 2022 |
| Indicative sunflower oil export price | Jan | $1,200/t | $1,169/t (Dec) | +$31/t |
| Sunflower meal export price | Jan | $195.7/t | $210.9/t (Dec) | −$15.2/t |
| Russian sunflower oil spot price | Recent | $1,280/t | $1,220/t | +$60/t |
Export Outlook: Russia Takes Lead in Global Sunflower Oil Trade
FAS USDA’s December outlook confirms Russia as the world’s largest sunflower oil supplier this season, with exports projected at 4.4 million tons, up from 4.2 million tons last year. Ukraine is expected at 4.175 million tons (down from 4.711 million tons), and Argentina at 1.45 million tons, consolidating the Black Sea and South America as key origins.
However, USDA trimmed Russia’s sunflower oil export forecast by 300,000 tons as its sunflower harvest estimate was reduced to 17.5 million tons. Sunflower meal exports were also revised down by 100,000 tons to 4.54 million tons, with total Russian vegetable oil exports cut from 6.86 million tons to 6.71 million tons, reflecting lower seed availability.
| Country / Metric | Season 2025/26 | Previous Estimate | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia sunflower oil exports (USDA) | 4.4 mln t | 4.7 mln t (approx.) | −0.3 mln t |
| Ukraine sunflower oil exports (USDA) | 4.175 mln t | 4.711 mln t (prior year actual) | −0.536 mln t vs prior year |
| Argentina sunflower oil exports (USDA) | 1.45 mln t | n/a | n/a |
| Russia sunflower meal exports (USDA) | 4.54 mln t | 4.64 mln t | −0.10 mln t |
| Russia total vegoil exports (USDA) | 6.71 mln t | 6.86 mln t | −0.15 mln t |
Production and Processing: Record Oilseed Crop but Weather Limits Sunflower Output
Despite downward revisions in sunflower, Russia is harvesting a record oilseed crop of around 33 million tons this season. The Institute for Agricultural Market Studies highlights record production in soybeans at over 9 million tons, rapeseed at approximately 5.5 million tons, and oilseed flax at more than 1.6 million tons, strengthening Russia’s broader vegoil balance sheet.
OleoScope estimates Russian sunflower seed production at 16.8–16.9 million tons, with crushing capacity utilization at 87%, supporting robust processing margins and product flows. IKAR places the sunflower harvest slightly lower at 16.7 million tons, citing drought in southern Russia as a key factor behind the shortfall versus earlier expectations.
| Item | Current Season Estimate | Comment |
|---|---|---|
| Russia total oilseed harvest | ~33 mln t | Record level |
| Russia soybean harvest | >9 mln t | Record |
| Russia rapeseed harvest | ~5.5 mln t | Record |
| Russia oilseed flax harvest | >1.6 mln t | Record |
| Russia sunflower seed (OleoScope) | 16.8–16.9 mln t | High utilization (87%) at crushers |
| Russia sunflower seed (IKAR) | 16.7 mln t | Below expectations due to drought |
| Russia sunflower oil exports (OleoScope) | 4.7 mln t | Above USDA forecast |
Market Implications and Trading Outlook
The sharp increase in Russia’s sunflower oil export duty, combined with a $60 per ton rally in spot prices and reduced production forecasts, is structurally bullish for global sunflower oil values into Q1 2026. While the zero duty on sunflower meal should encourage meal exports and support downstream feed buyers, the effect is constrained by lower sunflower seed availability and potential crush rationing.
Traders and end-users should closely track Black Sea logistics, insurance costs, and any further military escalation, as shipping disruptions could tighten nearby supplies, widen basis levels, and sustain elevated sunflower oil prices. Cross-commodity spreads against soybean and rapeseed oil may also adjust as buyers seek alternatives to manage cost and supply risk.
Source: Market Data
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