- Mid-December rebound: Russian grain exports for December 1–20 reached 3.389 million tons, up 14% year-on-year, driven by a sharp pickup in the second ten-day period.
- Wheat-led strength: Wheat exports nearly doubled in the second ten-day period to 1.679 million tons, pushing total December wheat shipments to almost 3.1 million tons (+18.5% YoY).
- Partial recovery in coarse grains: Corn and barley exports remain below 2023 levels but showed strong mid-month rebounds after steep first-period drops.
- Freight implications: Improved export flows signal stronger Black Sea freight demand and easing of earlier logistical constraints through month-end.
- Competitive landscape: Ongoing weakness in coarse grains suggests selective global demand and stronger competition from alternative origins.
Russian Grain Export Performance: December 1–20
Russia exported 3.389 million tons of primary grain crops between December 1–20, a 14% increase versus the same period in 2023, according to the Russian Grain Union. The improved performance was driven by a strong acceleration in the second ten-day period, which offset a steep 25.7% decline in shipments during the first ten days of the month.
Wheat was the main growth driver. Shipments in the second ten-day period exceeded 1.679 million tons, more than double the volumes recorded in the comparable period a year earlier. As a result, total wheat exports for December 1–20 reached nearly 3.1 million tons, up 18.5% year-on-year and firmly establishing wheat as the backbone of Russia’s mid-December export rebound.
Corn and barley flows also improved mid-month but continue to lag last year’s levels. Corn exports totaled 189,000 tons for December 1–20, down 20% year-on-year but recovering substantially from a 51.5% drop in the first ten-day period. Barley shipments reached 138,600 tons, down 8% year-on-year, after a pronounced 77% decline in the opening third of the month.
Grain Export Volumes and Year-on-Year Change
| Commodity | Period | Export Volume (tons) | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| All primary grains | Dec 1–20 | 3,389,000 | +14% |
| Wheat | Dec 1–20 | ≈3,100,000 | +18.5% |
| Wheat | Second ten-day period | 1,679,000 | More than 2x YoY |
| Corn | Dec 1–20 | 189,000 | -20% |
| Corn | First ten-day period | n/a | -51.5% |
| Barley | Dec 1–20 | 138,600 | -8% |
| Barley | First ten-day period | n/a | -77% |
| All primary grains | First ten-day period | n/a | -25.7% |
Market and Logistics Implications
The mid-December surge in Russian grain exports points to improved freight activity at Black Sea ports and a partial easing of earlier logistical bottlenecks. The strength in wheat shipments is particularly supportive for dry bulk demand as exporters move to execute seasonal programs ahead of potential weather disruptions.
Despite the rebound, the continued underperformance of corn and barley suggests uneven demand and heightened competition from other origins in global coarse grain markets. Logistics coordinators should prepare for sustained vessel demand pressure through the end of the month, while traders may expect Russia to maintain competitive wheat pricing to preserve export momentum in key destinations.
Source: Market Data
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