- Rail congestion is worsening at Greater Odesa ports, with the grain railcar backlog rising to 11,656 units despite weaker unloading.
- Throughput constraints are tightening, as average daily loading to Greater Odesa ports slipped to 1,077 railcars/day, deepening network bottlenecks.
- Danube corridor support is weakening, with unloading down to just 22 railcars/day, reducing an important alternative export route.
- Near-term export flows face delays, pointing to neutral-to-bearish implications for Ukrainian grain export execution.
Ukrainian Rail and Port Congestion Update
Rail logistics for Ukrainian grain exports continue to deteriorate across key corridors. At Greater Odesa ports, daily grain railcar unloading declined again as of the week ending December 25, even as the number of railcars queued for discharge increased. The backlog of grain railcars en route to these ports rose by 190 units over the week to 11,656 units, underscoring mounting congestion.
Upstream, average daily railcar loading on the network heading to Greater Odesa ports fell to 1,077 railcars per day, a week-on-week decrease of 48 railcars. This suggests tightening capacity constraints and potential operational slowdowns along the supply chain, even before cargo reaches port terminals.
Danube Corridor Weakness
The Danube export corridor, a critical alternative route for Ukrainian grain, is also showing signs of strain. The number of grain railcars heading to Danube ports decreased by 32 units last week to an estimated 32 railcars. At the same time, the average daily unloading rate dropped sharply by 15 railcars to just 22 railcars per day as of December 25, limiting the corridor’s capacity to absorb overflow from Black Sea ports.
Key Rail Logistics Metrics
| Indicator | Latest Level | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|
| Grain railcars en route to Greater Odesa ports | 11,656 units | +190 units |
| Average daily loading to Greater Odesa ports | 1,077 railcars/day | -48 railcars/day |
| Grain railcars heading to Danube ports | 32 units (est.) | -32 units |
| Average daily unloading at Danube ports | 22 railcars/day | -15 railcars/day |
Market Impact and Outlook
The widening gap between inbound railcar volumes and unloading capacity at Greater Odesa ports points to rising dwell times and higher operational strain at Ukraine’s main export terminals. With more than 11,600 grain railcars in the pipeline and slowing throughput, vessel loading schedules are at increased risk of slippage.
Simultaneous weakness at Danube facilities removes an important pressure relief valve for rerouting flows away from the Black Sea. For traders and exporters, this backdrop is neutral to bearish for near-term Ukrainian grain export performance, as logistical delays could disrupt shipment timing, increase demurrage risk, and potentially prompt temporary intake restrictions by port operators.
Source: Market Data
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