- Russian production down: Sunflower oil output dropped 14.1% year-on-year to 6.4 million tons in January–November 2025.
- Exports weaker: Shipments fell 29% to 3.45 million tons in the first ten months of 2025 amid tighter supplies.
- Margin pressure: Reduced sunflower harvest and weak processing profitability are forcing crushers to cut runs.
- Price risk: Lower Russian export availability is bearish for supply but potentially supportive for global sunflower oil prices.
Russian Sunflower Oil Production Update
Russia’s sunflower oil production fell 14.1% year-on-year to 6.4 million tons in January–November 2025, according to Rosstat data cited by the OleoScope press service. November output was reported at 0.7 million tons, down 8.6% month-on-month, underscoring a sustained slowdown in crushing activity.
Overall Russian food production has also softened, contracting 0.7% in the year to date, with November posting a 1.6% year-on-year decline. The sunflower oil segment is under particular pressure due to a smaller sunflower harvest and deteriorating processing margins.
Export Flows and Supply Impact
Preliminary customs and industry data indicate that Russian sunflower oil exports declined 29% to 3.45 million tons over the first ten months of 2025. Crushers have been scaling back operations as lower seed availability and poor crush economics erode profitability, limiting exportable surpluses.
The contraction in Russian export volumes is tightening the global vegetable oil balance, particularly for buyers in markets traditionally supplied by Black Sea sunflower oil. If weak margins persist, reduced Russian shipments could extend into 2026.
Production and Export Data
| Indicator | Period | 2025 Volume (mln tons) | Change vs 2024 |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil production (Russia) | Jan–Nov 2025 | 6.4 | -14.1% |
| Sunflower oil production (Russia) | Nov 2025 | 0.7 | -8.6% m/m |
| Sunflower oil exports (Russia) | Jan–Oct 2025 | 3.45 | -29.0% |
| Total food production (Russia) | Jan–Nov 2025 | n/a | -0.7% |
| Total food production (Russia) | Nov 2025 | n/a | -1.6% y/y |
Market Analysis
A 29% drop in Russian sunflower oil exports represents a meaningful tightening of global vegetable oil supply, as Russia is among the key exporters in this segment. With crushers curbing throughput due to weak crush margins, the likelihood of a swift recovery in export volumes appears limited unless seed prices ease or product prices rise sufficiently to restore profitability.
For importers dependent on Black Sea-origin sunflower oil, the reduced availability is potentially supportive for prices and may lead to premiums for nearby shipments. Competing suppliers, including Ukraine and select EU producers, could capture incremental demand if their own production and logistics remain stable. Overall, the current dynamics are bearish for Russian supply but supportive for global sunflower oil price levels heading into 2026.
Source: Market Data
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