- Import Outlook: Pakistan is now expected to avoid wheat imports in 2025/26, reversing the previous FAS forecast of 1.5 million tons.
- Domestic Support: Government plans to procure 6.2 million tons at a fixed price of about USD 312/ton, underpinning farm incomes and local supply.
- Global Market Impact: Neutral to bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters as a major potential buyer steps back from the import market.
- Production Risk: If Pakistan’s production estimates prove optimistic, the domestic price floor may still affect regional import and pricing dynamics.
Pakistan Cancels Planned Wheat Imports
Pakistan is now expected to avoid wheat imports during the 2025/26 marketing year after a stronger-than-expected sowing campaign, according to updated analysis from the Foreign Agricultural Research Service (FAS) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture. This contrasts with earlier expectations that the country would need to import around 1.5 million tons of wheat to cover domestic requirements.
The rapid pace of sowing has eased initial worries that widespread flooding would delay land preparation and reduce planted area. Early assessments had also highlighted risks from supply chain disruptions and losses of household seed stocks, which threatened to constrain seed availability at the farm level.
Government Response and Domestic Procurement
A coordinated government response helped secure adequate volumes of quality seed and key inputs in flood-affected regions, supporting normal to better-than-expected planting outcomes. This policy effort has been instrumental in stabilizing production expectations for the upcoming marketing year.
In a further shift, the Pakistani government has announced a domestic procurement program targeting 6.2 million tons of wheat from local farmers at a fixed price of approximately USD 312 per ton. This move reverses a two-year policy of avoiding direct purchases from producers and effectively establishes a price floor for domestic wheat.
Key Figures: Pakistan Wheat 2025/26 Outlook
| Metric | Value | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| Previous Import Forecast (2025/26) | 1.5 million tons | FAS forecast now effectively cancelled |
| Planned Government Procurement | 6.2 million tons | Domestic purchases from local farmers |
| Government Procurement Price | USD 312/ton | Approximate fixed price, acts as a domestic price floor |
Implications for Global Wheat Markets
The removal of Pakistan’s anticipated 1.5 million ton import requirement is neutral to bearish for global wheat markets, especially for Black Sea exporters. Russian and Ukrainian suppliers, who regularly compete for South Asian demand, lose a meaningful near-term demand outlet, potentially pressuring FOB offers if alternative buyers are not found.
The domestic procurement price of around USD 312 per ton provides a reference point for Pakistani producers and may shape regional trade flows. Should actual production underperform optimistic projections, this price floor could still make imports less attractive at higher global prices, influencing how Pakistan balances local supplies with any future import needs.
For now, global exporters will need to adjust sales strategies and destination mixes, while regional buyers monitor whether Pakistan’s improved sowing translates into sustained self-sufficiency through the 2025/26 marketing year.
Source: Market Data
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