- Bullish: Black Sea sunflower oil hit a record $1,290/t on strong export demand, while US soy complex and several palm oil benchmarks posted weekly highs.
- Bearish: Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands fell sharply and MATIF rapeseed hit a record low, highlighting weak European oil demand despite record-high rapeseed meal prices.
Black Sea Sunflower Oil Leads Vegetable Oil Complex
Sunflower oil FOB Black Sea surged $30.00/t to $1,290.00/t for December delivery, setting a new all-time high and underscoring robust export demand ahead of the holiday period. January delivery values held steady at the same level, reinforcing the strong near-term pricing environment. In contrast, sunflower oil CIF Mumbai eased $4.97/t to $1,338.28/t, pointing to some demand resistance in key import markets.
Soybean oil markets were mixed by region. US CBOT soybean oil climbed $16.09/t to $1,080.93/t, its highest level in a week, supported by firmer underlying demand for US soy products. FOB EU soybean oil slipped $2.27/t to $1,283.30/t, while Dalian China soybean oil gained $3.38/t to $1,141.11/t, reflecting diverging regional fundamentals.
Rapeseed oil FOB Netherlands recorded the steepest decline among major oils, dropping $24.60/t to $1,232.04/t for December, with February contracts matching this level. Palm oil showed a firmer tone: palm oil FOB Malaysia added $2.49/t to $1,017.39/t, and RBD palm oil in Dalian China rose $11.77/t to $1,210.69/t, both reaching weekly highs. Palm kernel oil RBD FOB Malaysia held at a weekly high of $1,855.68/t, while coconut oil FOB Indonesia remained at a record low of $2,722.71/t.
Meal and Oilseed Complex: Protein Strength vs. Oil Weakness
Rapeseed meal FOB EU jumped $14.93/t to a record $228.50/t, highlighting strong protein demand even as rapeseed oil prices slide. US CBOT soybean meal increased $3.97/t to a weekly high of $335.87/t, whereas CIF EU soybean meal fell $5.97/t to $374.12/t, marking both weekly and record extremes. Sunflower meal CIF France edged $0.45/t lower to $256.77/t, and Dalian China soybean meal was unchanged at $433.69/t.
In oilseeds, US CBOT soybeans gained $4.32/t to $390.67/t, a weekly high, while Dalian China soybeans rose $1.57/t to $580.11/t, also a weekly high. MATIF France rapeseed declined $2.12/t to $530.04/t, reaching a record low and underscoring continued pressure on the European rapeseed complex.
Price Dashboard: Key Vegetable Oils
| Commodity | Location / Basis | Delivery | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | Dec | 1,290.00 | +30.00 | Record high |
| Sunflower oil | FOB Black Sea | Jan | 1,290.00 | 0.00 | Unchanged |
| Sunflower oil | CIF Mumbai, India | – | 1,338.28 | -4.97 | Weaker import values |
| Soybean oil | US CBOT | – | 1,080.93 | +16.09 | Weekly high |
| Soybean oil | FOB EU | – | 1,283.30 | -2.27 | Softer EU market |
| Soybean oil | Dalian, China | – | 1,141.11 | +3.38 | Firm China values |
| Rapeseed oil | FOB Netherlands | Dec / Feb | 1,232.04 | -24.60 | Sharp decline |
| Palm oil | FOB Malaysia | – | 1,017.39 | +2.49 | Weekly high |
| RBD palm oil | Dalian, China | – | 1,210.69 | +11.77 | Weekly high |
| Palm kernel oil (RBD) | FOB Malaysia | – | 1,855.68 | 0.00 | Weekly high, steady |
| Coconut oil | FOB Indonesia | – | 2,722.71 | 0.00 | Record low, steady |
Price Dashboard: Meals and Oilseeds
| Commodity | Location / Basis | Price (US$/t) | Change (US$/t) | Market Note |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed meal | FOB EU | 228.50 | +14.93 | Record high |
| Soybean meal | US CBOT | 335.87 | +3.97 | Weekly high |
| Soybean meal | CIF EU | 374.12 | -5.97 | Weekly & record extremes |
| Sunflower meal | CIF France | 256.77 | -0.45 | Slightly weaker |
| Soybean meal | Dalian, China | 433.69 | 0.00 | Unchanged |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | 390.67 | +4.32 | Weekly high |
| Soybeans | Dalian, China | 580.11 | +1.57 | Weekly high |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | 530.04 | -2.12 | Record low |
Market Analysis and Outlook
The record-breaking move in Black Sea sunflower oil underscores exceptional strength in this origin, driven by firm export demand and expectations of tighter nearby supplies. The widening premium of Black Sea sunflower oil over competing oils is improving crush and export economics for regional traders and may continue to redirect global demand flows toward sunflower-origin products.
At the same time, the divergence within the rapeseed complex—record-high rapeseed meal alongside falling rapeseed oil and record-low MATIF rapeseed futures—signals strong protein demand versus subdued oil usage. This pattern is supportive for crushers’ margins but highlights structural weakness in European vegetable oil consumption.
US and Chinese soybean and product markets are firming, pointing to improving global demand fundamentals. This broader strength in the soy complex is likely to provide additional support for Black Sea oilseed and vegetable oil exports, reinforcing a bullish short-term outlook for Black Sea sunflower oil.
Source: Market Data
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