- Export Growth: Kazakhstan’s grain exports rose 15% year-on-year to 3.9 million tons in the first quarter of the 2025/26 season.
- Investment Drive: Government plans $2.6 billion in deep grain processing projects with 4.8 million tons annual capacity by 2028.
- Regional Demand: Exports to Uzbekistan jumped 35% and Kyrgyzstan volumes more than doubled, reinforcing Central Asia as a key growth market.
- Price Implications: Near-term supply growth is neutral to slightly bearish for regional wheat prices, but post-2028 processing could tighten raw grain exports.
Kazakhstan Grain Export Performance
Kazakhstan’s grain exports reached 3.9 million tons between September and December 19, 2025, up 15% from 3.4 million tons in the same period a year earlier, according to JSC NC Kazakhstan Temir Zholy. The increase reflects strong regional demand and the country’s second consecutive record harvest of 27 million tons in 2025.
| Indicator | 2024/25 | 2025/26 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Total grain exports (Sep–Dec 19) | 3.4 million tons | 3.9 million tons | +15.0% |
| Exports to Uzbekistan | 1.315 million tons | 1.774 million tons | +35.0% |
| Exports to Kyrgyzstan | 59,000 tons | 122,000 tons | +106.8% |
| Exports to Afghanistan | 190,000 tons | 260,000 tons | +36.8% |
| Planned processing capacity by 2028 | – | 4.8 million tons/year | New capacity |
| Planned processing investment | – | $2.6 billion | New investment |
Deep Processing Investment Strategy
Agriculture Minister Aidarbek Saparov outlined plans for five large deep grain processing projects to be completed by 2028. The $2.6 billion investment will enable processing of 4.8 million tons of wheat and corn annually, signaling a strategic shift from raw grain exports toward higher-value products and a more diversified grain sector.
Regional Trade and Logistics Dynamics
Central Asia remains the core growth engine for Kazakhstan’s grain exports. Uzbekistan’s imports climbed 35% to 1.774 million tons, while Kyrgyzstan’s volumes more than doubled to 122,000 tons. Afghanistan also expanded purchases by 36.8% to 260,000 tons, highlighting Kazakhstan’s rail logistics advantage to landlocked neighbors and supporting sustained demand on Kazakhstan–Central Asia rail corridors into Q1 2026.
Market Impact for Black Sea Exporters
In the near term, Kazakhstan’s aggressive export pace is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters, as increased supply competes for Central Asian demand traditionally served by Russian and Ukrainian origins. Over the medium term, however, the ramp-up of domestic processing capacity after 2028 could reduce the volume of raw grain available for export, potentially tightening regional supply and supporting prices for exporters able to maintain market share.
Source: Market Data
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