- Domestic bullish: Russian unrefined sunflower oil prices rose 7% year-on-year in November 2025 to RUB 86,426/ton, signaling stronger local demand or tighter supply.
- Export bearish: Export prices declined 4% year-on-year to RUB 94,317/ton, narrowing the export premium and potentially curbing producers’ incentive to prioritize foreign sales.
- Spread compression: The price gap between export and domestic markets narrowed to about RUB 7,891/ton (roughly a 9% premium), shifting margins toward domestic channels.
- Market tone: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea export markets; supportive to bullish for Russian domestic consumption.
Russian Sunflower Oil Market Update
In November 2025, Russian producers recorded an average price of RUB 86,426 per ton for unrefined sunflower oil on the domestic market, a 7% increase versus November 2024, according to Rosstat data published by Grain On-Line. Over the same period, the average producer price for unrefined sunflower oil designated for export fell to RUB 94,317 per ton, 4% lower year-on-year, pointing to diverging trends between internal and external demand.
Price Comparison: Domestic vs Export
| Market | Product | Price (Nov 2025) | YoY Change | Approx. Spread vs Domestic |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Domestic (Russia) | Unrefined sunflower oil | RUB 86,426/ton | +7% | Baseline |
| Export (Russia) | Unrefined sunflower oil | RUB 94,317/ton | -4% | +RUB 7,891/ton (~9% premium) |
Market Analysis
The contrasting direction of prices highlights shifting fundamentals in the Black Sea sunflower oil trade. Firming domestic prices suggest resilient internal consumption or tighter local supply, while softer export values imply increased competition from other origins or weaker global buying interest. As the export premium narrows to roughly 9% over domestic levels, Russian producers may find less incentive to emphasize foreign sales, which could trim exportable surplus from the Black Sea region in the near term.
Overall, the current structure is neutral to slightly bearish for international sunflower oil markets, as lower export prices reflect a softer global tone, whereas the strengthening domestic market is supportive to bullish for Russian consumption, with more product likely being absorbed locally.
Source: Market Data
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