- Global prices ease: Benchmark wheat grades across Russia, the US, EU, Ukraine, Romania, and Argentina all declined on abundant supply.
- Demand risks: China canceled 132,000 tons of US wheat purchases, reinforcing bearish market sentiment.
- Supply boost: Argentina’s harvest forecast rose to 27.1 million tons, with yields up 51% year-on-year.
- Stable Black Sea competitiveness: Russian and US wheat prices converged around $227-228/mt FOB, limiting price advantage for any origin.
- Favorable weather: Adequate snow cover and expected precipitation should protect winter crops, supporting a comfortable supply outlook into 2025.
Global Wheat Market Update
Global wheat prices extended their downward move this week, pressured by ample harvests and supportive winter crop conditions. Data from the Rusagrotrans analytical center show that major export origins continued to reduce offers, while demand signals—particularly from China—turned more cautious.
International Price Movements
| Origin / Grade | Protein | Price (FOB) | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russian wheat | 12.5% | $227–228/mt | −$1 |
| US wheat | — | $228/mt | −$9 |
| Ukrainian wheat | 11.5% | $226/mt | −$2 |
| French wheat | 11% | $226/mt | −$2 |
| Romanian wheat | — | $232/mt | −$1 |
| Argentine wheat | — | $213/mt | −$1 |
The convergence of Russian and US wheat prices around $227–228/mt FOB underscores intense competition among exporters. While Russian offers edged only slightly lower, US values saw the sharpest weekly decline, narrowing the spread between major origins.
Demand Developments
The US Department of Agriculture reported that China canceled 132,000 tons of US wheat purchases, adding to bearish sentiment and signaling softer demand from a key buyer. In contrast, Jordan’s purchase of 60,000 tons of barley at $270/mt C&F for March—$2.75 below the prior tender—highlights broader price pressure across grains. This tender equates to roughly $232/mt FOB Novorossiysk.
Supply Outlook and Argentina’s Harvest
| Metric | Current Season | Previous Season / Reference | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Argentina wheat harvest forecast | 27.1 mln tons | 25.5 mln tons (prior forecast) | +1.6 mln tons |
| Harvest progress (by Dec 17) | 20.2 mln tons (73% area) | — | — |
| Average yield | 4.24 t/ha | 2.80 t/ha (same date last year) | +51% |
The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange raised its forecast for Argentina’s wheat crop to 27.1 million tons, up 1.6 million tons from the previous estimate. Strong yield recovery—from 2.8 t/ha a year ago to 4.24 t/ha—adds significant exportable supply to an already well-stocked global market.
Russian Domestic Market
| Market Segment (Russia) | Specification | Price | Change | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deep-water ports (road delivery) | Wheat, grade 4, 12.5% protein | 15,300–15,400 RUB/mt (excl. VAT) | +50 RUB | Strengthening port basis |
| Deep-water ports (rail delivery) | Wheat | 16,000 RUB/mt | No change | Stable |
| Low-water period prices | Wheat | 14,500 RUB/mt | +100 RUB | Tighter logistics support prices |
| Domestic market | Wheat | — | No change | Flat domestic quotes |
Despite softer export benchmarks, Russian port prices in ruble terms firmed modestly, reflecting logistics, currency, and seasonal factors. Deep-water road-delivered wheat gained 50 rubles per ton, while low-water period prices increased by 100 rubles per ton; rail-delivered and broader domestic quotations remained unchanged.
Weather and Crop Conditions
Forecasts call for intermittent temperature drops to −18°C in central Russia and down to −30°C in the Volga region over the next two weeks. However, analysts expect sufficient snow cover to insulate winter crops from major freeze damage. In southern regions, anticipated precipitation should protect seedlings from low temperatures and help restore critical soil moisture reserves, reinforcing a stable production outlook into 2025.
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Sentiment: Bearish. The combination of strong Argentine output, broadly ample global supplies, and China’s cancellation of US wheat purchases is keeping the market under sustained pressure. With Russian and US FOB prices now closely aligned, Black Sea exporters retain participation but lack a clear price advantage. Favorable winter weather removes a key upside risk, suggesting limited scope for a sustained rally in the near term.
Traders should watch Chinese import behavior and the pace of Argentine exports closely in early 2025 as leading indicators of whether current price weakness persists or stabilizes.
Source: Market Data
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