Russian Wheat Export Duty Rises to 109.1 Rub/tonne

• Russia will reinstate a wheat export duty of 109.1 rubles/tonne from December 24, ending a two-week zero-duty period.
• Barley and corn export duties remain at zero through December 30, preserving their price competitiveness.
• The wheat indicative price is steady at $227.0/tonne, signaling stable demand despite the duty adjustment.
• The new duty adds an estimated ~$1.10/tonne cost for wheat exports, a modest headwind during peak export season.
• Overall market sentiment is neutral to marginally bearish for Russian wheat competitiveness in export markets.

Russia Reinstates Wheat Export Duty

The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has announced that the wheat export duty will be set at 109.1 rubles per tonne starting December 24, 2024, after two weeks at zero. This measure will be in place until at least December 30. Barley and corn export duties will remain at zero over the same period, maintaining favorable conditions for these grains in export channels.

Indicative Export Prices and Duty Structure

Market Impact and Sentiment

The reinstated wheat export duty, estimated at roughly $1.10 per tonne at current exchange rates, represents a modest increase in export costs rather than a major barrier to trade. With the wheat indicative price holding near $227 per tonne, demand fundamentals appear stable, and Russian wheat is likely to remain competitive, albeit with a slightly thinner margin.

The continuation of zero duties on barley and corn preserves their relative advantage in Black Sea export markets, particularly against origins facing higher logistical or policy-related costs. Overall, the policy mix points to neutral to marginally bearish sentiment for wheat competitiveness, while barley and corn retain supportive trade conditions.

Source: Market Data