- EU soft wheat output projected to fall 6.2% to 128.3 mln t in 2026/27, down 8.5 mln t from 2025/26.
- Barley production seen dropping 8.3% to 52.1 mln t on weaker yields across member states.
- Corn production bucking the trend, rising 3.4% to 58.5 mln t (+1.9 mln t year-on-year).
- Bullish for Black Sea wheat and barley as tighter EU supplies may lift import demand and support regional export premiums.
EU Grain Production Outlook for 2026/27
Consulting firm Expana projects a notable contraction in European Union grain production for the 2026/27 marketing year, led by declines in soft wheat and barley, while corn output is expected to increase moderately.
| Commodity | 2025/26 Production (mln t) | 2026/27 Production (mln t) | Absolute Change (mln t) | % Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Soft wheat | 136.8 | 128.3 | -8.5 | -6.2% |
| Barley | 56.8* | 52.1 | -4.7* | -8.3% |
| Corn | 56.6 | 58.5 | +1.9 | +3.4% |
*Barley 2025/26 production implied from the forecasted 8.3% decline (approximate).
Market Update
Expana’s first projections for the 2026/27 marketing year indicate that EU soft wheat production will decline to 128.3 million tonnes, down from 136.8 million tonnes in 2025/26. This 8.5 million tonne reduction underscores a tighter balance sheet for the EU wheat market.
The barley sector is expected to see an even sharper contraction, with output forecast at 52.1 million tonnes. Expana links the 8.3% year-on-year decline primarily to lower yields across several EU member states, pointing to increased weather and agronomic risk for the crop.
In contrast, EU corn production is projected to rise to 58.5 million tonnes in 2026/27, up 1.9 million tonnes from the current season’s 56.6 million tonnes. The 3.4% increase suggests a partial offset to the declines in wheat and barley, though it is unlikely to fully neutralize tightening in the broader grains complex.
Analysis and Trade Implications
The combined production shortfall of 8.5 million tonnes in wheat and roughly 4.7 million tonnes in barley is likely to support EU domestic grain prices and could lift import requirements if demand remains firm. Feed sectors may face higher input costs, particularly in regions heavily reliant on barley.
These dynamics are broadly bullish for Black Sea wheat and barley. With EU supply tightening, origins such as Ukraine and Russia may find increased export opportunities into the EU itself and into traditional EU outlets in North Africa and the Middle East. Competitive Black Sea pricing, coupled with quality premiums for higher-protein wheat, could strengthen the region’s market share.
Traders and risk managers should closely track planting conditions, yield prospects, and export policy developments in the Black Sea region. Any weather or logistical disruptions there could further amplify price volatility in global wheat and barley markets given the expected EU shortfalls.
Source: Market Data
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