- Corn-led surge: Ukrainian corn exports jumped 4.6x year-on-year in early December to 979,000 tonnes, driving overall grain export growth.
- Diversified demand: Strong buying from Turkey, Algeria, and new Middle Eastern destinations underpins sustained demand for Black Sea grains.
- Freight support: Higher export volumes are neutral to mildly bullish for Black Sea freight rates as vessel demand improves.
Ukrainian Grain Export Performance (Dec 1–15, 2024)
Ukrainian grain exports accelerated across all major crops in the first half of December 2024, reflecting improved logistics and robust international demand for Black Sea origins. Customs data show notable gains in wheat, barley, corn, and wheat flour shipments compared with the same period last year.
| Commodity | Dec 1–15, 2024 Exports (tonnes) | Dec 1–15, 2023 Exports (tonnes) | Y/Y Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 288,000 | 213,000 | +35% |
| Barley | ≈50,000 | 37,300 | +33% |
| Corn | 979,000 | 213,400 | +359% (4.6x) |
| Wheat Flour | 3,680 | 3,150 | +35% |
Key Destination Markets
| Commodity | Key Buyers (Dec 1–15, 2024) | Volume (tonnes) | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | Algeria | 140,000 | Remains top buyer; volume up 28% y/y |
| Wheat | Syria | 56,000 | New buyer vs. early Dec 2023 |
| Wheat | Yemen | 54,000 | New buyer vs. early Dec 2023 |
| Wheat | Turkey | 18,500 | Absent from wheat buyer list a year ago |
| Barley | Turkey | 43,900 | Dominant buyer; no purchases in early Dec 2023 |
| Corn | Turkey | 281,400 | Top corn buyer; up from 166,000 tonnes y/y |
| Corn | Italy | 215,500 | Strong EU demand for Ukrainian corn |
| Corn | Spain | 119,000 | Reinforces EU demand strength |
| Wheat Flour | Moldova | 906 | Largest flour buyer |
| Wheat Flour | Palestine | 783 | Key Middle Eastern destination |
| Wheat Flour | Czech Republic | 675 | EU buyer of processed grains |
| Wheat Flour | Israel | 586 | Additional regional demand |
Market Analysis and Freight Implications
The pronounced increase in Ukrainian corn exports, especially into Italy and Spain, highlights strong demand fundamentals and competitive Black Sea pricing versus alternative origins. Turkey’s emergence as a leading buyer of wheat, barley, and corn underscores a regional reorientation of trade flows and heightened supply needs.
New and returning wheat demand from Syria and Yemen, alongside stable North African offtake from Algeria, indicate a broader diversification of Ukraine’s export outlets. Logistical improvements and more predictable Black Sea shipping routes are likely enabling this wider market reach.
From a freight perspective, the broad-based rise in volumes across all key grains is neutral to mildly bullish for Black Sea shipping rates. Stronger export programs should support vessel utilization and chartering activity on routes into the Mediterranean, Middle East, and EU markets in the near term.
Source: Market Data
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