- Production: Brazil’s 2025/26 corn harvest is forecast at 133 million tons, down 3 million tons year-on-year due to lower yields.
- Exports: Corn exports are projected to rise to 43 million tons, supported by strong carryover stocks from the 2024/25 season.
- Trade Flows: January–November 2025 exports reached 34.8 million tons, with Iran and Egypt as the top buyers.
- Market Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea corn as Brazilian supplies sustain competitive export pressure despite lower output.
Brazil Corn Production and Export Outlook
The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service expects Brazil’s gross corn harvest for the 2025/26 season to reach 133 million tons, a decrease of 3 million tons from the 2024/25 season. The decline is driven by weaker average yields, projected at 58.9 centners per hectare versus 61.0 c/ha previously. First-crop corn harvesting is scheduled to start in January, with second-crop harvesting beginning in May.
Despite lower output, Brazil’s export program remains strong. FAS USDA forecasts corn exports at 43 million tons in 2025/26, up from 41 million tons in the current season. This increase is enabled by substantial carryover stocks from the robust 2024/25 harvest (March 2025 – February 2026), allowing Brazil to maintain an aggressive presence in key global markets.
Export Performance and Key Destinations
From January to November 2025, Brazilian corn exports totaled 34.8 million tons, a modest 2% decline compared with the same period a year earlier. Iran and Egypt led demand, alongside notable volumes to Vietnam, China, and Saudi Arabia, underscoring Brazil’s entrenched role as a key supplier across the Middle East and Asia.
| Metric | 2024/25 Season | 2025/26 Season (Forecast) |
|---|---|---|
| Corn production (million tons) | 136 | 133 |
| Average yield (c/ha) | 61.0 | 58.9 |
| Corn exports (million tons) | 41 | 43 |
| Period / Destination | Corn Exports (million tons) | Change vs. Year Ago |
|---|---|---|
| Jan–Nov 2025 total | 34.8 | -2% |
| Iran | 7.4 | N/A |
| Egypt | 6.5 | N/A |
| Vietnam | 3.3 | N/A |
| China | 1.9 | N/A |
| Saudi Arabia | 1.6 | N/A |
Impact on Black Sea Corn
Brazil’s ability to lift exports to 43 million tons, even as production slips, is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea corn. Elevated Brazilian carryover stocks allow exporters to sustain competitive pricing into overlapping destinations such as Egypt and Middle Eastern markets, where Ukrainian and Russian corn traditionally compete. Nonetheless, the projected yield decline introduces some risk of tighter availability later in the season, potentially opening pricing and volume opportunities for Black Sea origins if Brazilian supplies tighten faster than expected.
Source: Market Data
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