- Russia’s inland waterways: Planned river links from Siberia and the Urals to Northwest and Azov-Black Sea ports could gradually shift 5–10 MMT of grain per year away from rail, modestly reshaping regional freight flows.
- Kazakhstan exports: Projected grain exports of around 13 MMT in 2025/26, following a 27 MMT harvest, support continued strong Black Sea–linked grain flows from Central Asia.
- EU vegoil demand shift: A 10% YoY drop in EU vegetable oil imports and a 33% fall in sunflower oil inflows from Ukraine, offset by surging soybean and rapeseed oil imports, signal changing crush and trade patterns.
- Freight implications: Inland waterway expansion and softer EU demand for Black Sea oilseeds are neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea freight rates over the medium term.
Russia Expands Inland Waterways for Grain Logistics
Russian authorities are advancing an inland waterway strategy to move grain from Siberia and the Urals to export hubs in the Northwest and the Azov-Black Sea basin. Grain market expert Leonid Khazanov estimates that, once fully developed, river routes could theoretically move 5–10 MMT of grain annually, easing pressure on rail infrastructure but requiring substantial fleet and port investments.
Pavel Ivankin, President of the National Research Center “Transportation and Infrastructure,” expects that only about 7–8% of total grain volumes could shift to river transport in the 2026 navigation season, with an upper bound of roughly 20% during the navigation period. Given that the Azov-Black Sea corridor already handles around 70% of Russia’s grain exports, incremental river capacity mainly fine-tunes, rather than transforms, export flows in the medium term.
Authorities are considering extending navigation on key rivers until 1 December to maximize utilization. This extension, alongside multimodal chains through Tatarstan and the Samara Region, is intended to better tap the Siberian Federal District’s record harvest of over 17 MMT in 2025, up from 16 MMT in 2024, with export potential from the region estimated at about 6 MMT. The modernization of the Gorodets Hydroelectric Complex has been classified as critical infrastructure to support these plans.
Kazakhstan Maintains Strong Grain Export Outlook
Kazakhstan’s Vice Minister of Agriculture Azat Sultanov projects grain export potential at roughly 13 MMT for the 2025/26 marketing year. This follows a record 13.4 MMT shipped in the previous season, the highest level in two decades and 47% above the prior period. The outlook is underpinned by Kazakhstan’s second consecutive record harvest of approximately 27 MMT, supporting sustained export availability via Black Sea–linked routes and overland corridors.
In parallel, Kabardino-Balkaria has exceeded its annual agricultural export plan by nearly 80% as of November 2025, supplying grain, confectionery, beverages, and feed to around 20 countries. Notably, processed products account for more than 83% of volumes, highlighting a trend toward higher value-added exports in parts of the region.
EU Vegetable Oil Imports: Shifting Product Mix
From 1 July to 16 December 2025, EU vegetable oil imports totaled 2.356 MMT, down 10% year-on-year, with notable shifts across individual oil types. Sunflower oil imports declined sharply, while soybean and rapeseed oil arrivals surged, altering demand signals for Black Sea exporters, particularly Ukraine.
| Product | EU Import Volume (1 Jul–16 Dec 2025, MMT) |
YoY Change | Key Supplier (Ukraine) | Ukraine Volume (MT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Total vegetable oils | 2.356 | -10% | – | – |
| Sunflower oil | 0.777 | -33% | Primary supplier | 717,800 |
| Soybean oil | 0.286 | +155% | Primary supplier | 139,700 |
| Rapeseed oil | 0.225 | +96% | Primary supplier | 162,700 |
Despite the overall reduction in sunflower oil inflows, Ukraine remains the EU’s dominant supplier of sunflower, soybean, and rapeseed oils. However, the 33% year-on-year drop in sunflower oil imports signals softer demand for traditional Black Sea oilseed products, potentially weighing on tanker and bulk vessel utilization along these routes if the trend persists.
Freight Market Implications
The expansion of Russian inland waterways is neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea freight in the medium term. While total export volumes from Russia and Kazakhstan remain robust, the gradual diversion of 5–10 MMT of grain to river transport during navigation seasons could modestly reduce rail-to-port flows and reshape seasonal load patterns.
Experts highlight that grain moved by river in summer may shift to road transport in winter rather than returning to rail, fragmenting freight demand rather than eliminating it. Combined with weaker EU sunflower oil imports from Ukraine, the overall impact points to a modest softening bias for Black Sea freight rates, particularly on oilseed-linked routes, even as cereal exports stay strong.
Logistics coordinators should closely track the timeline of Russian waterway upgrades through 2026, capacity additions in river fleets and terminals, and evolving EU oil demand patterns. Proactive planning around multimodal options—rail, river, and road—will be key to optimizing costs and securing liftings in an increasingly flexible but more complex logistics landscape.
Source: Market Data
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