China Soybean Imports Could Drop to 30% by 2034

• Structural shift: Goldman Sachs projects China could cut soybean import dependency from 90% to 30% by 2034.
• Demand reduction: Chinese oilseed consumption has already declined by 15 million tons between 2021–2024.
• Feed reformulation: Lower soybean meal inclusion and efficiency gains in feed processing are curbing import needs.
• Domestic substitution: Expansion of high-protein corn cultivation aims to replace a portion of imported soybeans.
• Bearish for Black Sea suppliers: Medium-term reduction in Chinese demand is negative for Black Sea soybean prices and trade flows.

Market Update

Goldman Sachs analysts forecast that China will sharply reduce its reliance on soybean imports, potentially lowering its current 90% import dependency to around 30% over the next decade. This projection aligns with a notable contraction in China’s oilseed consumption, which has already fallen by 15 million tons between 2021 and 2024.

To achieve greater import independence, China is pursuing a multi-pronged strategy. Livestock producers have reduced the share of soybean meal in feed formulas, enhanced processing efficiency, and optimized feed mixtures to maintain animal performance with less soybean input. Parallel to this, authorities are promoting large-scale cultivation of high-protein corn varieties to provide a domestic protein source that can partially substitute imported soybeans.

This policy trajectory is unfolding despite China’s October commitment to continue purchasing substantial volumes of U.S. soybeans over the next three years following high-level bilateral talks. Beijing has stressed that these purchases will be balanced against its broader objective of reinforcing domestic market stability and resilience against external supply disruptions.

Analysis and Price Implications

Bearish for Black Sea Soybeans. The anticipated medium-term decline in Chinese import demand will gradually reshape global soybean trade flows. While U.S. and South American exporters remain most exposed, Black Sea producers are likely to face additional price pressure as traditional suppliers redirect volumes into overlapping markets. The already realized 15 million ton reduction in China’s oilseed consumption underscores that this is a structural shift, not a short-term adjustment, increasing competition for alternative destinations and potentially weighing on Black Sea basis levels and FOB values over time.

Source: Market Data