- Bearish: Ukrainian wheat prices declined across domestic and export markets, with feed wheat under sharper pressure than milling wheat.
- Bearish: Port prices for both milling and feed wheat slipped by USD 1–2/t, reflecting weaker export demand and ample supply.
- Bearish: Power outages are constraining production capacity and may further limit near‑term domestic demand despite ongoing processor buying.
- Neutral to Bearish: Narrow price spreads between milling and feed wheat at ports signal adequate supply and limited support for a price rebound.
Market Overview
The Ukrainian wheat market posted broad-based price declines last week, closely tracking weakness in export markets. Domestic prices for both milling and feed wheat moved lower, with greater pressure evident in the feed segment as demand appeared softer for lower-quality grain.
Despite ongoing operational disruptions from power outages, most processors remained active buyers, helping to partially offset reduced demand resulting from constrained production capacity. Trader activity was opportunistic and highly situation-dependent, contributing to a cautious overall tone.
Domestic Wheat Prices (CPT)
| Commodity | Price Range (UAH/t, CPT) | Comments |
|---|---|---|
| Class 2 Milling Wheat | 9,600–10,800 | Lower decline versus feed wheat; relatively firmer demand |
| Feed Wheat | 8,800–9,900 | Sharper price pressure amid weaker fundamentals |
Port Wheat Prices (CPT-port, Odessa)
| Commodity | Price Range (USD/t, CPT-port) | Weekly Change (USD/t) |
|---|---|---|
| Milling Wheat | 211–219 | -1 to -2 |
| Feed Wheat | 203–211 | -1 to -2 |
| Price Spread (Milling vs Feed) | ~8 (midpoint) | Narrow, indicating adequate supply |
Market Analysis and Sentiment
The parallel movement of domestic and export prices underscores strong integration between Ukrainian and global wheat markets, with limited local factors able to offset external weakness. The more pronounced decline in feed wheat prices points to relatively softer demand for lower-quality grain and sufficient availability of supply.
Infrastructure challenges from recurring power outages are restraining production capacity, acting as a drag on domestic demand growth even as processors continue to procure grain. Narrow spreads between milling and feed wheat at ports reinforce the view of comfortable supply conditions. Overall market sentiment remains bearish for Ukrainian wheat in the near term, with export market softness and infrastructure constraints outweighing steady but constrained processor demand.
Source: Market Data
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