- Neutral to Bearish: Russian wheat exports fell 21.6% year-on-year in early December, with buyer countries shrinking to 14 from 32.
- Supportive Demand: Egypt and Turkey increased purchases, while Iran entered as a new buyer, underscoring resilient demand for Russian wheat.
- Concentration Risk: Export mix narrowed sharply to 7 commodity types, suggesting a focus on wheat and reduced diversification across grains and oilseeds.
- Logistics Watch: Traders should monitor whether the slowdown reflects temporary Black Sea bottlenecks or deeper supply issues that could tighten global wheat supply.
Russian Wheat Export Performance: Early December
Russian wheat exports totaled 1.38 million tonnes between December 1-10, a 21.6% year-on-year decline based on Russian Grain Union monitoring data reported by Interfax. The export portfolio narrowed markedly, with only 7 categories of grain, legumes, and oilseeds shipped versus 19 in the same period a year earlier. The number of destination countries fell to 14 from 32, signaling a sharp contraction in the breadth of Russia’s export outlets.
Despite the headline decline, core buyers deepened their engagement. Egypt increased its wheat intake to 278,400 tonnes, up 8.2% year-on-year. Turkey, after lifting its temporary wheat import ban, almost doubled purchases to 246,000 tonnes from 125,000 tonnes. Iran emerged as a new buyer, importing 135,700 tonnes compared with no recorded shipments in the comparable period last year, highlighting Russia’s growing foothold in that market.
Kazakhstan Import Dynamics
Kazakhstan’s purchases of Russian grain also trended higher into October 2025. Volumes rose to 65,300 tonnes valued at $10.8 million, up from 59,700 tonnes worth $9.9 million in September. Wheat led the inflows at 8,800 tonnes, followed by 2,600 tonnes of barley and 800 tonnes of buckwheat, underscoring the continued regional dependence on Russian-origin cereals.
| Period / Country | Commodity | Volume (tonnes) | Value (USD million) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dec 1-10 (YoY) | Russian Wheat Exports (Total) | 1,380,000 | n/a |
| Dec 1-10 | Wheat to Egypt | 278,400 | n/a |
| Dec 1-10 | Wheat to Turkey | 246,000 | n/a |
| Dec 1-10 | Wheat to Iran | 135,700 | n/a |
| Oct 2025 (Kazakhstan) | Total Russian Grain | 65,300 | 10.8 |
| Sep 2025 (Kazakhstan) | Total Russian Grain | 59,700 | 9.9 |
| Oct 2025 (Kazakhstan) | Wheat | 8,800 | n/a |
| Oct 2025 (Kazakhstan) | Barley | 2,600 | n/a |
| Oct 2025 (Kazakhstan) | Buckwheat | 800 | n/a |
Market Implications and Trading View
The overall picture for Russian wheat is neutral to bearish in the near term. The 21.6% export drop and reduced destination spread may reflect either supply constraints or logistical bottlenecks in Black Sea export channels. At the same time, firm demand from Egypt, Turkey, and the new pull from Iran suggests that global buyers remain willing to absorb Russian wheat if flows normalize.
The sharp narrowing in commodity diversity indicates a prioritization of wheat over other crops, which could leave non-wheat segments relatively under-supplied. Traders should closely monitor freight conditions, port capacity, and any policy shifts that might clarify whether the slowdown is temporary or symptomatic of deeper supply-side tightness that could eventually underpin global wheat prices.
Source: Market Data
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