- Bearish for prices: Moldova’s rapeseed exports to the EU surged 3.25x year-on-year, lifting its share of EU imports from 3.2% to 15% and increasing supply for European crushers.
- Supportive for basis/logistics: Heavy dependence on road freight (53%) and Romania–Bulgaria routes raises the risk of border bottlenecks, which could firm local basis levels despite ample supply.
- Structurally neutral: With 88% of shipments as raw seed and limited domestic processing, Moldova acts mainly as an origin for EU crushers rather than a new crushing competitor.
Moldova’s Rapeseed Export Surge in 2025/26
The Republic of Moldova has become the EU’s second-largest rapeseed supplier in the 2025/26 marketing season, with exports between July and November 2025 reaching 286,623 tonnes. This represents a 225% year-on-year increase and exceeds the previous seasonal record by 11.7%. Moldova’s share of total EU rapeseed imports has jumped from 3.2% to 15%, materially reshaping Black Sea supply dynamics.
Total season shipments have already exceeded 325,000 tonnes, with Romania and Bulgaria absorbing 93% of the volume. This cements Moldova’s role as a key regional origin for EU crushers, particularly around the Black Sea corridor.
Price and Revenue Overview
Export revenues climbed to 2.589 billion Moldovan lei, 3.29 times higher than the previous year, supported both by higher volumes and stronger prices. The average export price reached 9.03 lei per kilogram, more than 20% above the prior record season’s level.
| Metric | 2024/25 (Jul–Nov) | 2025/26 (Jul–Nov) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rapeseed export volume (tonnes) | ~88,200 | 286,623 | +225% |
| Estimated total season exports (tonnes) | n/a | >325,000 | Record high |
| Export revenues (MDL billion) | ~0.787 | 2.589 | +229% |
| Average export price (MDL/kg) | <=7.50 | 9.03 | >20% above prior record |
| Moldova’s share of EU rapeseed imports | 3.2% | 15% | +11.8 pp |
| Share of raw seed in exports | n/a | 88% | High reliance on unprocessed |
| Share of value-added products (oil, etc.) | n/a | 12% | Limited processing capacity |
Export Structure and Processing Capacity
The export basket remains heavily skewed toward unprocessed rapeseed, with 88% of shipments leaving the country as raw seed and only 12% exported as higher value-added products such as rapeseed oil. This underscores Moldova’s role as a supply origin feeding EU crushing capacity rather than a direct competitor in processed oil and meal markets.
For EU crushers, the growing availability of Moldovan seed increases sourcing flexibility and may exert modest downward pressure on procurement costs, especially in Romania and Bulgaria, where competition for feedstock traditionally centers on domestic and Ukrainian supply.
Logistics and Transportation Mix
Road freight dominated Moldova’s rapeseed exports in 2025/26, accounting for 53% of total shipped volume. Maritime routes handled 38%, while rail’s share slipped to 9% before ceasing entirely from October onward. The modal shift away from rail points to potential infrastructure or cost constraints that could cap further growth if not addressed.
| Transport Mode | Share of Total Exports | Notable Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Road | 53% | Primary route via Romania–Bulgaria border crossings |
| Maritime | 38% | Key channel for broader EU access |
| Rail | 9% | Declined and stopped entirely from October |
The concentration of flows through road corridors into Romania and Bulgaria raises the risk of congestion and higher transport costs during peak periods. Any disruption at border crossings or port facilities could quickly ripple into basis levels and nearby crush margins.
Market Impact for EU Rapeseed Buyers
From a pricing standpoint, the increased presence of Moldovan rapeseed in the EU market is broadly neutral to mildly bearish. Additional seed availability, particularly into Romania and Bulgaria, expands supply options for crushers and may ease price pressure versus previous tight years.
However, Moldova’s limited domestic processing capacity and heavy reliance on raw seed exports suggest that structural competition in the value-added segment remains constrained. The key watchpoints for market participants are logistics: sustained reliance on road transport and the loss of rail capacity could create localized tightness, even in an environment of ample overall supply.
Source: Market Data
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