- Bearish US & Black Sea: Brazil’s soybean export potential is projected to jump to 115 million tons in 2026, reinforcing its dominance and eroding market share for competing origins.
- Bearish Prices: Expanded Brazilian production to 178 million tons and higher carryover stocks of 7–8 million tons are likely to pressure international soybean prices.
- Export Momentum: September–December 2025 exports are estimated at 21.8 million tons, up 41% year-on-year, signaling strong early-season shipment pace.
- Structural Expansion: Planted area is expected to reach 50.5 million hectares, up 1.7 million hectares year-on-year, underpinning sustained supply growth.
- Neutral to Bearish Black Sea: Increased Brazilian supply limits pricing power and market share opportunities for Black Sea exporters, especially into Asia and the Middle East.
Brazilian Soybean Export Outlook
Oil World analysts project that Brazil will maintain its dominant position in the global soybean market through 2026, supported by robust production, expanding acreage, and substantial carryover stocks. Beginning January 2026, Brazilian exporters are expected to hold 7–8 million tons of soybean stocks, enhancing flexibility and export capacity early in the marketing year.
Brazil’s soybean harvest is forecast at 178 million tons, representing a significant year-on-year increase. This growth is driven by an expansion in planted area to 50.5 million hectares, up 1.7 million hectares from the previous season. The larger crop underpins higher exportable supplies and reinforces Brazil’s competitive edge in key importing regions.
Export Performance and Projections
Brazil’s export performance in late 2025 underscores its strengthening role in global soybean trade. December 2025 shipments are expected to reach 3.5 million tons, a 75% increase versus 2 million tons in December 2024. Over the September–December 2025 period, cumulative exports are projected at 21.8 million tons, well above the 15.4 million tons shipped in the same period of 2024.
| Indicator | 2024 | 2025 (Est.) | 2026 (Proj.) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sept–Dec Exports (million tons) | 15.4 | 21.8 | – |
| December Exports (million tons) | 2.0 | 3.5 | – |
| Total Export Potential (million tons) | 92.4 (previous season) | 108.3 (expected) | 115 (minimum) |
| Production (million tons) | – | – | 178 |
| Planted Area (million hectares) | 48.8 | 50.5 | – |
| Carryover Stocks, Jan (million tons) | – | – | 7–8 |
Looking ahead, Brazil’s soybean export potential is estimated at a minimum of 115 million tons in 2026, compared with the current year’s expected 108.3 million tons and the previously achieved 92.4 million tons. This trajectory confirms a structural increase in export capacity that will shape global trade flows over the medium term.
Implications for US and Black Sea Soybeans
The aggressive expansion of Brazilian soybean production and exports is neutral to bearish for Black Sea origins and broadly negative for competitors’ pricing power. Larger Brazilian supplies, supported by higher stocks and expanded acreage, are likely to cap international soybean prices and compress margins for alternative exporters.
For Black Sea exporters, increased competition is expected to limit market share gains in key demand centers such as Asia and the Middle East. While US exporters may occasionally benefit from logistical or seasonal windows when Brazilian supplies tighten, the overarching trend favors ample global availability led by Brazil, constraining upside price potential across the complex.
Source: Market Data
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