- Trade Resumption: China has booked its first Argentine wheat cargo in around 30 years via state-owned Cofco International.
- Competitive Supply: Record Argentine harvest and lower export duties to 7.5% are making its wheat among the cheapest globally.
- Market Impact: Neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat as Argentina competes more aggressively in Asian destinations, including China.
China Resumes Argentine Wheat Imports
China has resumed purchases of Argentine wheat after roughly three decades, with state-owned Cofco International loading a cargo at its Timbues terminal on the Paraná River. The vessel will complete loading with more than 65,000 tons of wheat at Argentine ports before sailing to China, marking a notable diversification in Chinese wheat sourcing away from traditional suppliers.
Argentina’s Competitive Edge
Argentina has harvested a record wheat crop this season under near-perfect growing conditions, pushing its exportable surplus and helping position Argentine wheat among the cheapest origins in the global market. On December 12, the Argentine government cut wheat export duties from 9.5% to 7.5%, further enhancing the country’s competitiveness and making its cargoes more attractive for price-sensitive buyers such as China.
| Item | Previous Level | Current Level |
|---|---|---|
| Chinese purchase of Argentine wheat (gap since last purchase) | ~30 years without imports | Trade resumed via Cofco International |
| Single cargo volume to China | – | 65,000+ tons |
| Argentina wheat export duty | 9.5% | 7.5% |
Market Impact on Black Sea Wheat
The immediate market impact is assessed as neutral to slightly bearish for Black Sea wheat exporters. Argentina’s combination of record production, aggressive pricing, and lower export taxes strengthens its position in key Asian destinations where Black Sea origins traditionally compete. If China’s purchase proves to be more than a one-off deal and evolves into a regular flow, Black Sea wheat premiums into Asia could face sustained pressure as buyers diversify supply and leverage Argentina’s more competitive offers.
Traders and exporters in the Black Sea region should monitor Chinese buying patterns closely, focusing on whether subsequent Argentine sales emerge and how spreads between Argentine and Black Sea wheat evolve for forward shipment periods into Asia.
Source: Market Data
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