- Russian edge on quality: Low protein levels (9–10%) in Argentine wheat and quality discounts on Southern Hemisphere supplies support premiums for Russian origin.
- Stable price spreads: Russian wheat maintains tight price spreads of $3–5/ton versus $15–20/ton in Argentina, signaling reduced basis volatility for buyers.
- Uzbekistan demand softens: Wheat imports projected at 4.3 MMT in 2025/26, down nearly 5% year-on-year as domestic production falls to 6.1 MMT.
- Regional trade shifts: Lower Uzbek import volumes may redirect Black Sea wheat flows to other protein-sensitive markets.
Uzbekistan Wheat Balance Overview
The USDA forecasts Uzbekistan’s wheat imports at 4.3 million tons for the 2025/26 marketing year, nearly 5% below the prior season. This comes alongside a 9% decline in domestic wheat output to 6.1 million tons from 6.7 million tons in 2024/25, driven by weaker yields despite a slightly higher planted area. Exports are projected to edge down to 1.8 million tons, while ending stocks hold steady at 967,000 tons, signaling a modest tightening but no acute supply squeeze.
| Marketing Year | Production (MMT) | Change YoY | Imports (MMT) | Change YoY | Exports (MMT) | Ending Stocks (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | 6.7 | – | 4.5 (approx.) | – | 1.9 | 0.967 |
| 2025/26 (f) | 6.1 | -9% | 4.3 | -5% | 1.8 | 0.967 |
Global Wheat Supply and Quality Differentials
Russian wheat is strengthening its competitive position as quality gaps emerge in Southern Hemisphere origins. Argentina is expected to harvest 35.6 million tons of wheat in 2025/26, up 1.5 million tons, while Australia’s crop rises by 6.9 million tons to 25.5 million tons. However, Argentine wheat protein is reported at just 9–10%, making it less attractive for protein-sensitive buyers and opening room for a quality premium on Russian supplies.
| Origin | 2025/26 Production (MMT) | Production Change | Protein Quality | Typical Price Spread |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | n/a | n/a | Higher protein vs. Argentina | $3–5/ton |
| Argentina | 35.6 | +1.5 MMT | Low (9–10%) | $15–20/ton |
| Australia | 25.5 | +6.9 MMT | Improved volume, mixed quality | n/a |
Market Impact and Pricing Outlook
Quality discounts on Argentine and some Australian parcels are moderately bullish for Russian wheat, particularly in markets where protein and baking performance command a premium. Narrow Russian price spreads of $3–5/ton indicate relatively stable basis conditions, improving price predictability for importers. While softer Uzbek demand trims one outlet in Central Asia, the overall setup favors Black Sea wheat in higher-spec tenders and in markets looking to hedge quality risk.
Regional Logistics and Trade Flows
With Uzbekistan’s imports easing and exports down slightly, intra-regional trade flows could adjust as neighboring buyers seek competitively priced high-protein wheat. Logistics coordinators should watch for shifts in rail and truck flows across Central Asia, as reduced Uzbek intake may free up Russian supplies for alternative destinations in the Middle East, North Africa, and other protein-sensitive markets.
Source: Market Data
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