- Russia to Lead Exports: Russia is projected to become the world’s largest sunflower oil exporter in 2025/26 with shipments rising to 4.4 million tons.
- Ukraine’s Market Share Declines: Ukraine’s sunflower oil exports are expected to fall from 4.7 million tons to 4.2 million tons, reducing its export dominance.
- Tighter Global Supply: Global sunflower oil exports are forecast to contract to 12.8 million tons, potentially supporting firmer prices if demand holds.
- Regional Power Shift: The export balance in the Black Sea region is shifting in favor of Russia, with competitive pressure mounting on Ukrainian suppliers.
- Price Outlook: The outlook is Neutral to Bullish for Russian exporters and Bearish for Ukrainian export competitiveness.
Russia to Overtake Ukraine in Sunflower Oil Exports
The latest USDA projections for the 2025/26 season indicate a notable reshaping of the global sunflower oil export landscape. Russia is set to overtake Ukraine as the leading exporter, with higher outbound volumes expected from Russian producers amid a broader tightening of global export availability.
Global Sunflower Oil Export Outlook
According to the USDA’s December review of global oilseed and fat-and-oil product balances, worldwide sunflower oil exports are forecast to decline in 2025/26. Total exports are projected at 12.8 million tons, down from the previous season, signaling a more constrained supply environment for importers.
| Exporter | Sunflower Oil Exports 2024/25 (million tons) | Sunflower Oil Exports 2025/26 (million tons) | Change (million tons) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | 4.2 | 4.4 | +0.2 |
| Ukraine | 4.7 | 4.2 | -0.5 |
| Argentina | n/a | 1.5 | +1.5 |
| Global Total | n/a | 12.8 | n/a |
Russia Versus Ukraine: Shifting Export Dynamics
Russia’s sunflower oil exports are expected to rise from 4.2 million tons to 4.4 million tons in 2025/26, securing its position as the world’s top exporter. Over the same period, Ukraine is projected to cut exports from 4.7 million tons to 4.2 million tons, relinquishing its current leadership in the global market. This 200,000-ton increase for Russia, versus a 500,000-ton decline for Ukraine, underscores the shifting competitiveness within the Black Sea region.
Market Impact and Price Signals
The reordering of export volumes between Russia and Ukraine highlights evolving production and export capacity across the region. While Russia captures additional market share, Ukraine faces a weaker export profile, which could erode its pricing power in key destination markets.
With total global sunflower oil exports expected to fall to 12.8 million tons, traders and importers may confront tighter availability. If demand remains stable, this reduced supply could support price premiums, particularly for Black Sea origin sunflower oil, and reinforce a Neutral to Bullish stance for Russian exporters. Conversely, the outlook is Bearish for Ukrainian export competitiveness as volumes and potential influence on benchmark prices decline.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply