- Supply Growth: Indonesia’s corn harvested area is projected to rise 20.9% YoY to 0.62 million hectares in Nov 2025–Jan 2026, boosting near-term supply.
- Output Increase: Dry corn production for Nov 2025–Jan 2026 is estimated at 3.93 million tonnes, up 18.96% YoY, with full-year 2025 output seen 9% higher at 16.5 million tonnes.
- Black Sea Impact: Increased Indonesian output may trim import needs marginally, but the direct impact on Black Sea corn flows remains limited due to freight and regional trade patterns.
Indonesia Corn Production Outlook
Statistics Indonesia (BPS) projects a strong expansion in the country’s corn sector over the November 2025–January 2026 harvest window, driven by larger planted and harvested areas and improved yield potential.
| Period | Indicator | 2025 Projection | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov 2025–Jan 2026 | Harvested Area | 0.62 million ha | +20.9% |
| Nov 2025–Jan 2026 | Dry Corn Production (14% moisture) | 3.93 million tonnes | +18.96% |
| Full Year 2025 | Total Corn Harvest | 16.5 million tonnes | +9.0% |
BPS estimates harvested area in November 2025–January 2026 will reach 0.62 million hectares, a 20.9% increase versus the same period a year earlier. This expansion underpins a forecast 18.96% rise in dry corn output to 3.93 million tonnes at 14% moisture during these three months.
On a calendar-year basis, Indonesia’s corn harvest in 2025 is projected at 16.5 million tonnes, up 9% from 2024. This growth reflects both area gains and incremental productivity improvements, enhancing domestic feedgrain availability and potentially moderating internal price pressures.
Implications for Black Sea Corn and Global Trade Flows
Despite the size of the projected increase, the direct impact on Black Sea corn exports is expected to be neutral in the near term. Indonesia is a major corn importer in Southeast Asia but typically relies on South American origins, particularly Argentina and Brazil, where freight economics into the region are more favorable than from the Black Sea.
The 9% rise in 2025 domestic production could modestly reduce Indonesia’s import requirements, slightly tightening demand for discretionary corn volumes on the global market. This may be felt more acutely by South American exporters that compete directly into Southeast Asia, while Black Sea suppliers remain focused on nearer markets including the Middle East, North Africa and the EU.
For Black Sea traders, Indonesia’s production surge is more a peripheral signal than an immediate demand shock. The key watchpoint will be whether increased local availability in early 2026 alters Indonesia’s spot purchasing pattern, potentially reducing or delaying tenders during Q1 2026 and shifting some demand back into later quarters or alternative feedgrains.
Overall, the development reinforces a slightly looser global corn balance but does not meaningfully disrupt Black Sea export programs, which remain anchored to regions where they enjoy strong freight advantages and established logistics corridors.
Source: Market Data
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