- Australian canola exports plunged 61% in October to 62,710 tonnes as stocks tightened ahead of the new-crop harvest.
- Japan absorbed 91% of Australia’s October canola shipments, underlining its role as the dominant buyer.
- Russia expanded its grain and oilseed flows to Asia, shipping 3,500 tonnes of oats and 1,300 tonnes of rapeseed to China from Chita in November.
- Market sentiment is Neutral to Slightly Bullish for Black Sea rapeseed as Australian supply tightness may redirect demand toward alternative origins.
Australian Canola Export Slowdown
Australian canola exports contracted sharply in October, falling to 62,710 tonnes from 158,850 tonnes in September, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics. The 61% month-on-month decline reflects depleted domestic stocks as exporters transition into the new-crop harvest that ramps up from November.
Japan remained the dominant outlet for Australian canola, taking 57,290 tonnes in October and accounting for around 91% of total shipments. Smaller volumes moved to Malaysia (1,950 tonnes) and Nepal (1,480 tonnes), highlighting the temporary narrowing of Australia’s export footprint during the pre-harvest tightness.
Russian Oilseed and Grain Flows to Asia
In November, Russia’s Chita grain processing plant shipped a combined 4,800 tonnes of grain and oilseeds to Asian markets, according to the Rosselkhoznadzor Administration for Zabaikalsky Krai. China received 3,500 tonnes of oats and 1,300 tonnes of rapeseed, while Mongolia imported 60 tonnes of wheat bran, underlining Russia’s growing role as a regional supplier into Northeast Asia.
Trade Flows Overview
| Origin | Destination | Commodity | Volume (tonnes) | Period |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Australia | All destinations | Canola | 158,850 | September |
| Australia | All destinations | Canola | 62,710 | October |
| Australia | Japan | Canola | 57,290 | October |
| Australia | Malaysia | Canola | 1,950 | October |
| Australia | Nepal | Canola | 1,480 | October |
| Russia (Chita) | China | Oats | 3,500 | November |
| Russia (Chita) | China | Rapeseed | 1,300 | November |
| Russia (Chita) | Mongolia | Wheat bran | 60 | November |
Market Impact and Sentiment
The abrupt drop in Australian canola exports underscores seasonal tightness in global rapeseed supply ahead of the Southern Hemisphere harvest. For Black Sea exporters, the temporary gap in Australian availability improves competitiveness in Asian destinations, especially in China where Russian rapeseed volumes are already increasing. The latest shipment data from Chita reinforces Russia’s emerging position as a key oilseed supplier to Northeast Asia. Overall, sentiment is Neutral to Slightly Bullish for Black Sea rapeseed as buyers may diversify away from constrained Australian origins in the near term.
Source: Market Data
Leave a Reply