- Bearish – Ukraine: Wheat export prices at ports fell by USD 3–4/tonne amid softer external demand, with milling wheat at USD 212–220/tonne and feed wheat at USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port.
- Neutral – Domestic Ukraine: Internal wheat prices in UAH remained broadly stable, supported by processor demand and high logistics costs despite weaker export momentum.
- Neutral – Regional Supply: Kyrgyzstan has sown over 60% of its planned 2025 winter crop area and is pushing a full shift from spring to winter wheat and barley to lift yields by 20–30%.
- Strategic – Central Asia: Higher winter crop productivity in Kyrgyzstan could modestly reduce regional wheat import needs over the 2025/26 marketing year.
- Risk – Black Sea: Ongoing Russian attacks on Ukrainian port infrastructure are helping to maintain a price floor even as trader interest softens.
Ukrainian Wheat Market Update
Ukrainian wheat prices at ports eased last week as export demand weakened. Milling wheat values slipped by USD 3–4/tonne to USD 212–220/tonne CPT-port, while feed wheat moved to USD 204–212/tonne CPT-port. Despite the export-side softness, domestic quotations were largely unchanged, with class 2 wheat trading at UAH 9,800–10,800/tonne and feed wheat at UAH 9,000–10,100/tonne CPT.
The modest correction reflects fading trader interest, but downside is constrained by firm processor demand, elevated logistics costs, and persistent risks around port infrastructure due to Russian attacks. Overall, the tone is neutral to slightly bearish, with export tender activity and port operational capacity remaining key indicators to watch.
| Market | Category | Price Range | Currency / Basis | Weekly Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ukraine – Port | Milling wheat | 212–220 | USD/tonne, CPT-port | -3 to -4 USD/tonne |
| Ukraine – Port | Feed wheat | 204–212 | USD/tonne, CPT-port | -3 to -4 USD/tonne |
| Ukraine – Domestic | Class 2 wheat | 9,800–10,800 | UAH/tonne, CPT | Stable |
| Ukraine – Domestic | Feed wheat | 9,000–10,100 | UAH/tonne, CPT | Stable |
Kyrgyzstan’s Winter Crop Expansion
Kyrgyzstan is advancing a structural shift toward winter grain production. According to the Ministry of Water Resources, Agriculture, and Processing Industry, more than 60% of the area earmarked for 2025 winter crops has already been sown. Authorities are urging farmers to convert 100% of wheat and barley areas—around 500,000 hectares in total—to winter varieties.
The transition is expected to lift yields by 20–30% compared with spring crops, reinforcing national food security and reducing reliance on imports over time. While the country’s absolute production scale is modest and has limited direct impact on Black Sea export flows, incremental gains in Central Asian self-sufficiency could marginally temper regional import demand in the 2025/26 marketing year.
Market Outlook and Regional Implications
For Ukraine, the market tone is neutral to bearish in the short term as softer export demand weighs on port prices. However, infrastructure risks and strong local processing demand should help maintain a floor under values. Regionally, Kyrgyzstan’s winter crop initiative is best viewed as a long-term productivity story, with only a limited near-term effect on Black Sea grain balances but a potentially meaningful role in strengthening Central Asian food security.
Source: Market Data
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