- Bearish: Ukrainian barley exports fell 37% year-on-year to 1.2 million tonnes in July–November 2025/26, pointing to weaker overall demand.
- Neutral: Export potential is still forecast to rise 11% to 2.5 million tonnes on the back of a larger 5.3 million tonne harvest.
- Supportive: Turkey increased its purchases 6.4-fold to 233,000 tonnes, helping diversify demand away from China and Libya.
Ukraine Barley Export Overview
Ukrainian barley exports totaled 1.2 million tonnes in the first five months of the 2025/26 marketing year (July–November), a 37% decline versus the same period in 2024/25. November shipments dropped to 78,200 tonnes, around half the volume recorded in November 2024, underscoring the seasonal slowdown and softer external demand.
Shifting Export Destinations
The export destination structure has changed notably this season. China remains the largest buyer with a 42% share of Ukrainian barley exports, followed by Turkey at 20% and Libya at 12%. Turkey has emerged as the key growth market, ramping up imports to 233,000 tonnes from just 36,000 tonnes a year earlier—a 6.4-fold increase. In contrast, China and Libya have cut their purchases of Ukrainian barley by 31% and 37% respectively.
Export Potential and Market Balance
Analysts project Ukraine’s barley export potential at 2.5 million tonnes for 2025/26, an 11% increase on the previous season, supported by a forecast gross harvest of 5.3 million tonnes. With 1.2 million tonnes already shipped—46% of projected export capacity—by the end of November, the marketing pattern appears front-loaded. To reach the 2.5 million tonne target by June, Ukraine would need to maintain average monthly exports of roughly 260,000 tonnes over the remainder of the season.
Market Sentiment
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly bearish. Turkey’s aggressive buying and the resulting diversification of export destinations provide some support, but they do not fully compensate for reduced structural demand from key Asian and North African buyers. The combination of lower in-season shipments, weaker interest from China and Libya, and a larger harvest suggests ongoing pressure on Ukrainian barley prices unless demand recovers in the second half of the marketing year.
Source: Market Data
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