- Bearish (Imports): Russian soybean imports fell 63% year-on-year in September–November 2025 to just 0.15 million tons as record domestic output reduced external demand.
- Structural Shift: A record 9.4–9.5 million ton domestic soybean harvest has effectively eliminated Russia’s reliance on Brazilian supplies and reshaped internal logistics.
- Global Demand Support: China imported 8.11 million tons of soybeans in November 2025 and is on track for a record 110–112 million tons in annual imports, underscoring robust global demand.
- Black Sea Impact: Market impact is neutral to slightly bearish, with potential future pressure from increased Russian exports of soybean meal and oil.
Russia Slashes Soybean Imports as Domestic Harvest Surges
Russia has sharply reduced its dependence on imported soybeans following a record domestic harvest in 2025. According to Agroexport estimates, soybean imports in September–November 2025 plunged to around 0.15 million tons, a 63% decline compared with the same period in 2024. This is the lowest level since records began and reflects an almost complete halt in purchases from Brazil.
The key driver is exceptional domestic production. Russia’s 2025 soybean harvest is estimated at 9.4–9.5 million tons in net weight, significantly above prior expectations. Agroexport analysts highlight that this bumper crop has fundamentally altered the country’s soybean balance, fully supplying local crushing plants and creating scope for exports of processed products rather than raw beans.
Domestic Logistics and Processing Dynamics
Internal logistics have adjusted rapidly to the new supply environment. Rail shipments of soybeans to Kaliningrad from other Russian regions increased 3.5 times in physical volume during July–October 2025 compared with a year earlier. This surge underscores the redistribution of domestic raw materials toward key processing hubs, supporting higher utilization rates at crushing facilities and reducing the need for imported beans.
China’s Record-Bound Soybean Import Program
While Russia trims its import needs, China continues to underpin global soybean demand. Chinese imports reached 8.11 million tons in November 2025, the highest November volume since 2021. Over January–November, China imported 103.79 million tons of soybeans, a 6.9% increase year-on-year.
If prevailing trends persist, China’s full-year soybean imports could reach 110–112 million tons, setting a new historical record. This sustained demand, largely directed toward Brazilian and other major exporters, remains a key bullish factor for global soybean trade flows, even as some regional markets like Russia shift toward self-sufficiency.
| Indicator | Period / Season | Volume (million tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia soybean imports | Sep–Nov 2025 | 0.15 | -63% |
| Russia soybean production (net weight) | Harvest 2025 | 9.4–9.5 | Record high |
| China soybean imports | Nov 2025 | 8.11 | Highest November since 2021 |
| China soybean imports | Jan–Nov 2025 | 103.79 | +6.9% |
| China soybean imports (projection) | Full year 2025 | 110–112 | Expected record |
Black Sea Market Impact: Neutral to Slightly Bearish
For the Black Sea oilseed complex, Russia’s transition from a net soybean importer to a largely self-sufficient producer removes a minor regional demand outlet, contributing a neutral to slightly bearish tone. Historically, the Black Sea region was not a primary soybean supplier to Russia, limiting the direct downside, but the shift does reduce competition for global origins such as Brazil.
Looking ahead, the larger impact may come from Russia’s potential growth in exports of soybean meal and oil. As domestic crushing runs at higher capacity, these products could increasingly compete with other Black Sea-origin oilseeds and meals in regional markets. Nonetheless, robust Chinese demand and record-bound imports provide an offsetting supportive factor for global price levels.
Source: Market Data
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