- Bullish: Expectations for slightly tighter U.S. wheat ending stocks in the upcoming USDA WASDE report could offer support to global wheat prices.
- Bearish: Strong French wheat crop conditions and a record Canadian canola harvest forecast are adding competitive pressure and weighing on futures.
- Neutral: Markets are largely in a holding pattern as traders await key USDA data, keeping overall sentiment neutral to slightly bearish.
Wheat Market Overview
Global wheat futures ended the week mixed to slightly lower as traders positioned ahead of the USDA’s December WASDE report. Chicago (CBOT) March soft red winter wheat slipped 0.51%, while Paris (MATIF) March milling wheat declined 0.48%. The modest pullback reflects caution rather than a decisive shift in sentiment, with market participants waiting for fresh supply and demand signals.
In Europe, market focus is on favorable French crop prospects. FranceAgriMer reported that 96% of the soft wheat crop is rated good-to-excellent as sowing nears completion, reinforcing expectations for strong production and sustained export competitiveness into 2025.
In the southern hemisphere, Argentina’s wheat harvest has reached 45% completion, slightly behind last year’s 48% pace. While not alarming, the slower progress adds a minor element of uncertainty to near-term export availability.
USDA WASDE Expectations
Market attention is firmly on the upcoming USDA WASDE release, with analysts surveyed by Bloomberg expecting U.S. wheat ending stocks at 894 million bushels—around 7 million bushels below last year. Confirmation of tighter U.S. or global wheat stocks could trigger a short-covering rally and offer a bullish catalyst for both U.S. and Black Sea wheat values.
Until the report is published, the wheat market is likely to remain range-bound, with traders reluctant to take large directional positions. The current bias is neutral to slightly bearish, given strong competing origins and the absence of immediate supply threats.
Corn and Soybean Futures
Corn futures ended lower as participants adjusted positions ahead of the WASDE update. Analysts expect the USDA to trim U.S. corn ending stocks by around 9 million bushels, a modest adjustment that, if realized, may offer only limited price support unless accompanied by stronger demand signals.
Soybean futures also softened, with traders weighing fresh U.S. sales to China against expectations for a 16-million-bushel increase in U.S. ending stocks. The anticipated build in soybean inventories is exerting downward pressure, particularly given ongoing competition from South American supplies.
Oilseed and Vegetable Oil Markets
ICE canola futures declined as the market absorbed forecasts for a record Canadian canola harvest, which is adding notable bearish pressure to the oilseed complex. This, combined with softening soybean prices, is contributing to a weaker tone across North American oilseeds.
In the vegetable oil space, Rotterdam sunflower oil FOB values remained unchanged, signaling a pause after recent moves and reflecting the broader wait-and-see stance ahead of key U.S. data.
Price Snapshot
| Futures Exchange | Commodity (Contract) | Closing Price ($/tonne) | Daily Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| CBOT | Wheat (Mar ’25) | $197.49 | -0.51% |
| CBOT | Corn (Mar ’25) | $175.10 | -0.56% |
| CBOT | Soybeans (Jan ’25) | $406.10 | -1.27% |
| MATIF | Milling Wheat (Mar ’25) | $220.36 | -0.48% |
| MATIF | Corn (Mar ’25) | $217.74 | -0.21% |
| ICE | Canola (Jan ’25) | $450.48* | -1.14% |
| Rotterdam | Sunflower Oil (FOB) | $1,370.00 | Unchanged |
*Converted from 617.90 CAD/t at an approximate rate of 0.729 USD/CAD.
Outlook for Wheat and Black Sea Markets
The modest softness in CBOT and MATIF wheat benchmarks could exert slight downward pressure on Black Sea export prices in the near term. With French crop conditions rated exceptionally high and export competition intensifying, Black Sea sellers may need to remain price-competitive to secure tenders.
Nonetheless, the decisive driver for direction in the coming week remains the WASDE report. Any confirmation of tightening U.S. or global wheat stocks would likely shift sentiment toward a more bullish stance and support a rebound across major origins, including the Black Sea region. Until then, the market tone remains neutral to slightly bearish.
Source: Market Data
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