- Bullish: Russia eliminates wheat export duty and offers higher food-grade share, improving price competitiveness versus lower-protein Southern Hemisphere wheat.
- Bearish: Large harvests in Argentina and Australia, weaker Chinese demand for Russian wheat, and lower Novorossiysk loadings weigh on global price sentiment.
Russia Removes Wheat Export Duty
The Russian Ministry of Agriculture has reduced the wheat export duty from 8.9 rubles per ton to zero for the period December 10–16. The adjustment is based on an indicative wheat price of $226.1 per ton, slightly lower than $227.3 in the previous period. Export duties on barley and corn remain at zero.
Indicative Export Prices
| Commodity | Indicative Price ($/ton) | Export Duty (Dec 10–16) |
|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 226.1 | 0 rubles/ton (from 8.9) |
| Barley | 213.6 | 0 rubles/ton |
| Corn | 208.5 | 0 rubles/ton |
Russian Wheat Quality Profile
Russia’s 2025 wheat crop shows a modest quality improvement versus 2024, with food-grade wheat (grades 1–4) accounting for 78% of total production, up from 77% a year earlier. State monitoring across 67 regions highlights a strong share of higher grades in the overall balance.
| Quality Metric | 2024 | 2025 |
|---|---|---|
| Food-grade share (Grades 1–4) | 77% | 78% |
| 3rd-grade wheat share | n/a | 30.5% |
| 4th-grade wheat share | n/a | 47.3% |
| 5th-grade wheat share | n/a | 22.0% |
Competition From Southern Hemisphere Origins
Argentina is harvesting a record 25.5 million tons of wheat, up 6.9 million tons year-over-year, but a sizable share is low-protein (9–10%), below the 11.5% export standard. This contrasts with Russia’s stronger protein profile, resulting in wider quality spreads in Argentina and relatively narrow spreads in Russia.
| Origin | Harvest Volume (Wheat) | Protein/Quality | Quality Spread ($/ton) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Russia | n/a | Higher food-grade share, stronger protein | 3–5 |
| Argentina | 25.5 million tons | Significant share at 9–10% protein (below 11.5% standard) | 15–20 |
Regional Logistics Update
Port activity at Novorossiysk totaled 462,700 tons of wheat last week, down from 694,900 tons the previous week. The main destinations were Iran, Turkey, and Egypt, underscoring ongoing demand from traditional Black Sea buyers despite the weekly decline in volumes.
| Destination | Weekly Loadings (tons) |
|---|---|
| Total Novorossiysk wheat loadings (latest week) | 462,700 |
| Iran | 135,700 |
| Turkey | 112,900 |
| Egypt | 83,100 |
| Total Novorossiysk wheat loadings (prior week) | 694,900 |
Russian Wheat Exports to China
Russian wheat exports to China have fallen sharply in 2025. January–September shipments totaled just 17,700 tons, more than 16 times lower than in the same period of 2024. Despite this, Russian wheat has been the cheapest origin into China on a CIF basis.
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Russian wheat exports to China (Jan–Sep 2025) | 17,700 tons |
| Change vs. Jan–Sep 2024 | More than 16-fold decrease |
| Russian wheat price into China (Sep 2025, CIF) | $237.0/ton |
| Price vs. Sep 2024 | -4.2% year-over-year |
Market Outlook
Overall sentiment is neutral to slightly bullish. The elimination of Russia’s wheat export duty and its superior protein content provide a competitive edge against Southern Hemisphere supplies. However, expanded production in Argentina and Australia, weaker Chinese demand for Russian wheat, and lower Novorossiysk throughput temper upside potential. Market participants should watch whether protein-sensitive buyers continue to pivot toward Black Sea origins as Argentine quality issues emerge.
Source: Market Data
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