- Bullish: Kazakhstan’s flaxseed exports to the EU surged to a record 119.8k tons in October 2025 as higher EU tariffs on Russian flax redirected demand.
- Bearish: Global flaxseed production is projected to rise to 3.9 million tons, creating an export surplus that weighs on prices across all origins.
- Bullish: Kazakhstan’s 2025/26 flaxseed exports are forecast at 680k tons, supported by preferential access to EU buyers ahead of the EU’s 50% duty on Russian flax.
- Bearish: Intensifying competition in Asian markets, especially China, is likely as Russian volumes are diverted from the EU, pressuring regional premiums and margins.
Kazakhstan Flaxseed Export Surge
Kazakhstan’s flaxseed exports hit a historic high in October 2025, with 119.8 thousand tons shipped outside the EAEU, nearly double September volumes. The shift follows the European Union’s decision to impose a 20% duty on Russian flax, creating an opportunity for Kazakhstani suppliers to capture market share in Europe.
In the first two months of the 2025/26 marketing year (September–October), Kazakhstan exported 182.7 thousand tons of flaxseed—3.1 times more than the same period a year earlier and already equal to 35% of total exports in the previous season.
Export Performance by Destination
European Union demand has been the main growth driver, with significant volume gains across multiple member states, while Asian and Central Asian markets have also expanded sharply.
European Union Destinations
| Destination (EU) | Export Volume (thousand tons) | Change vs. Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| Belgium | 45.2 | 2.8x increase |
| Poland | 14.4 | 5.8x increase |
| Germany | 4.9 | 6.1x increase |
| Czech Republic | 1.6 | 4x increase |
| Other EU (Lithuania, Estonia, Italy, Netherlands) | n/a | Exports also increased |
Asian and Central Asian Destinations
| Destination (Asia & Central Asia) | Export Volume (thousand tons) | Change vs. Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| China | 61.4 | 4x increase |
| Afghanistan | 20.8 | +37% |
| Pakistan | 3.9 | +39% |
| Uzbekistan | 4.9 | +58% |
| Tajikistan | 2.5 | 1.8x increase |
Global Flaxseed Supply Outlook
Global flaxseed production is forecast to expand sharply in the 2025/26 marketing year, led by higher crops in Russia, Kazakhstan, and Canada. The resulting export surplus is expected to cap rally attempts and keep market sentiment neutral to bearish.
| Country | Production 2025/26 (million tons) | Year-on-Year Change |
|---|---|---|
| Russia | 1.73 | +28% |
| Kazakhstan | 0.81 | +24% |
| Canada | 0.455 | +76% |
| Total (Global) | 3.9 | +0.95 million tons |
| Export Indicator | Volume (million tons) | Change vs. Previous Season |
|---|---|---|
| Combined Exports (Russia, Kazakhstan, Canada) | 2.2 | +25% vs. last season; +10% vs. 2022/23 record |
| Kazakhstan Export Forecast 2025/26 | 0.68 | n/a |
Policy Shifts and Trade Flow Reconfiguration
The EU’s current 20% duty on Russian flax has already rerouted flows toward Kazakhstan and other alternative origins. From 1 January 2026, the duty is scheduled to rise to 50%, further incentivizing European buyers to deepen relationships with Kazakhstani exporters while making Russian supplies structurally uncompetitive in the EU market.
As Russian exporters pivot away from Europe, additional volumes are likely to be pushed into China, where Russian deliveries have already doubled since September. This reorientation will intensify competition in Asian markets, particularly for standard-grade seed, and may compress regional basis levels.
Market Impact and Regional Freight Dynamics
Overall market sentiment for the Black Sea flax complex is neutral to bearish. Kazakhstan enjoys a premium window into the EU, supported by policy-driven demand and relatively lower trade barriers. In contrast, Russian exporters face a more commoditized, price-sensitive environment in Asia, where increased supply limits the potential for price appreciation.
Higher export volumes from Kazakhstan to European ports are creating incremental demand for regional freight capacity, which may offer modest support to Black Sea shipping activity. However, the overarching theme of global oversupply constrains both price upside for flaxseed and sustained freight rate rallies.
Source: Market Data
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