Rostov Grain Exports Surge 2.5x in Q1 2024

• Rostov’s Q1 2024 grain exports reached 6.4 MMT, a 2.5x increase versus Q1 2023.
• Wheat, barley, and corn dominated the export mix, with key demand from Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Pakistan.
• Bearish for global grain prices as Russia maintains strong export flow and competitive offers.
• Supportive for the Black Sea freight market, with firm vessel demand out of the Azov Sea.

Russian Grain Export Surge from Rostov

The government of Russia’s Rostov region reported a significant increase in grain exports for the first quarter of 2024. Total shipments reached 6.4 million metric tons (MMT), representing a 2.5-fold rise compared with the same period in 2023.

The export program was dominated by wheat, barley, and corn, reflecting the region’s strong grain balance following a robust prior harvest. Cargoes were primarily directed to Egypt, Turkey, Bangladesh, and Pakistan, confirming continued demand from North African and Asian buyers for competitively priced Black Sea origins.

Market Impact and Price Signal

Bearish: The data confirms Russia’s continued ability to move large volumes into the global market, adding downward pressure on international wheat, barley, and corn prices. Rostov’s strong Q1 performance highlights Russia’s pricing competitiveness and operational capacity at a key Black Sea hub, limiting upside for rival exporters.

For the freight market, sustained high shipment volumes from the Azov Sea underpin firm demand for tonnage on regional routes. Active loading programs out of Rostov and surrounding ports support vessel utilization and keep regional freight rates underpinned, even as global grain prices face headwinds from ample Russian supply.

Source: Market Data