- Kazakhstan’s barley exports to key markets Iran and China dropped sharply at the start of 2025/26 amid high freight costs, Russian competition, and rail bottlenecks.
- Central Asian demand has increased, with shipments to Uzbekistan and Tajikistan rising, but this growth does not fully offset losses to Iran and China, keeping the regional tone bearish.
- Russian barley’s aggressive pricing and Kazakhstan’s internal logistical issues are amplifying competitive pressure across the Black Sea–Central Asia barley corridor.
Kazakh Barley Export Shift in Early 2025/26
Official data for September–October of the 2025/26 marketing year show a clear reorientation of Kazakhstan’s barley exports away from its traditional heavyweights, Iran and China, toward neighboring Central Asian buyers. The pivot reflects both cost pressures in seaborne trade and mounting logistical constraints in overland routes.
Declining Shipments to Iran and China
Exports to Iran, historically Kazakhstan’s largest barley outlet, fell by nearly 20% year-on-year to around 202,000 tons in the first two months of 2025/26. Industry sources attribute the decline to a shortage of vessels, sharply higher freight rates, and direct price pressure from competitively priced Russian barley. At the same time, exports to China slumped by 55% to 83,400 tons, as periodic restrictions on grain shipments by Kazakhstan Railways disrupted flows and limited volumes.
Central Asian Demand Offsets Only Part of the Loss
While large importers reduced intake, Kazakhstan deepened its role as a supplier to neighboring Central Asian markets. Exports to Uzbekistan, the third-largest buyer, rose by 35% to roughly 50,000 tons. Shipments to Tajikistan expanded even faster, increasing by 45% to 28,000 tons. These regional gains, however, are insufficient in scale to compensate for the combined decline in Iranian and Chinese demand, leaving an overall soft tone for Kazakh barley exports.
Kazakhstan Barley Exports: Year-on-Year Changes
| Destination | 2025/26 Volume (tons) | 2024/25 Volume (tons) | % Change YoY |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iran | ~202,000 | 251,700 | -20% |
| China | 83,400 | 187,300 | -55% |
| Uzbekistan | ~50,000 | 37,100 | +35% |
| Tajikistan | 28,000 | Not specified | +45% |
Market Tone and Competitive Landscape
The overall signal for the regional barley market is bearish. Kazakhstan is being priced out of Iran by high freight costs and aggressive offers from Russian origins, while rail and logistical constraints are limiting potential sales into China. Although Central Asian buyers are absorbing more volume, their markets are structurally smaller and cannot fully replace lost demand from Iran and China. As exporters compete for a narrower set of outlets, price pressure is likely to persist across the Black Sea–Central Asia barley complex.
Source: Market Data
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