- Bearish Black Sea sunoil: FOB Black Sea sunflower oil for December fell by $20/t to $1,185/t, weighing on the broader regional oilseed complex.
- Domestic oilseed pressure: Record Russian soybean (9.1 Mt) and rapeseed (6.1 Mt) harvests plus export duties are capping domestic prices despite some farmer holding.
- Limited upside for seeds: December sunflower seed prices are seen only slightly higher at 35,000–35,500 RUB/t EXW, still well below last year’s 38,300 RUB/t.
- Input cost relief: Seasonal declines in Russian diesel and gasoline prices could lower logistics and farm input costs by 5–10% by spring.
- Overall tone: Market sentiment remains bearish for oilseeds, as heavy supplies and weak export incentives outweigh modest cost improvements.
Market Overview
Global vegetable oil markets were mixed, but the Black Sea region saw a sharp correction. FOB Black Sea sunflower oil for December delivery dropped by $20 to $1,185/t, following broader weakness in soy oil futures, where US CBOT prices fell over $22/t. This decline is pressuring crush margins and undermining domestic sunflower seed price expectations.
In Russia, analysts at Ruseed expect sunflower seed prices to edge up in December to 35,000–35,500 RUB/t (EXW, ex-VAT), from the current 34,640 RUB/t. However, this remains well below last year’s 38,300 RUB/t. Farmer stockholding in anticipation of firmer spring prices is providing some support, but upside is constrained by a higher export duty on sunflower oil set at 8,214.5 RUB/t, which discourages exports and keeps more product on the domestic market.
Domestic Oilseed Fundamentals
Record domestic crops are exerting significant pressure on Russia’s oilseed complex. Soybeans reached a record 9.1 million tonnes (+26% year-on-year), with prices forecast to remain stable at 31,500–31,600 RUB/t in December. Rapeseed production also hit a record 6.1 million tonnes (+22% YoY), keeping December prices in a relatively narrow and subdued band of 34,000–34,500 RUB/t. Export duties and ample supply are limiting any near-term rally potential across these markets.
Logistics and Fuel Price Trends
On the cost side, domestic fuel prices in Russia are trending lower on seasonal factors. Exchange quotations for diesel around 48.4 RUB/liter and softer gasoline prices indicate further wholesale cost reductions ahead. Baseline projections point to a 5–10% decline in wholesale fuel prices by spring, which should ease logistics and some farm input expenses, but this relief is unlikely to offset the broader bearish impact of large oilseed supplies and weaker export values.
International Prices Snapshot (03.12.2025)
| Commodity | Basis | Delivery | Price ($/t) | Daily Change ($/t) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sunflower Oil | FOB Black Sea | Dec | 1,185.00 | -20.00 |
| Sunflower Oil | CIF Mumbai | Dec | 1,338.28 | +4.98 |
| Soybean Oil | US CBOT | Dec | 1,132.07 | -22.05 |
| Soybean Oil | FOB Brazil | Dec | 1,122.46 | -17.81 |
| Rapeseed Oil | FOB Netherlands | Dec | 1,260.36 | +0.48 |
| Palm Oil | FOB Malaysia | Dec | 1,037.29 | +4.97 |
| Soybeans | US CBOT | Dec | 409.96 | -3.31 |
| Rapeseed | MATIF France | Dec | 557.82 | -2.96 |
| Sunflower Meal | CIF France | Dec | 262.57 | +1.07 |
| Soybean Meal | FOB Brazil | Dec | 345.86 | +17.31 |
Market Sentiment and Outlook
Overall sentiment is bearish for the oilseed complex. The steep decline in FOB Black Sea sunflower oil is cutting into crush margins and reducing incentives for processors to bid aggressively for raw seeds. At the same time, record soybean and rapeseed harvests, combined with restrictive export duties that keep supply at home, are creating a heavy domestic balance sheet. While farmer stockholding and lower fuel costs may offer pockets of support and cost relief, they are insufficient to offset the downward pressure from abundant supplies and weaker export benchmarks.
Source: Market Data
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