- Bearish for freight: Ukraine’s 2025/26 grain exports are lagging last year by 6.24 MMT at 12.613 MMT, curbing demand for bulk carriers in the Black Sea.
- Corn underperforms: Corn shipments are down nearly 50% year-over-year at 3.878 MMT, the largest deficit among major crops.
- Weaker early-December flow: Shipments in the first days of December totaled 229 thousand tons, less than half the 480 thousand tons shipped in early December 2024.
- Soft flour demand: Flour exports have slipped to 28.1 thousand tons from 32.8 thousand tons a year ago, reinforcing the overall slowdown.
Ukrainian Grain Export Pace Slows Sharply Year-on-Year
Official data from Ukraine’s Ministry of Agrarian Policy show that total grain and leguminous crop exports for the 2025/26 marketing year reached 12.613 million metric tons (MMT) as of December 3, well below the 18.855 MMT shipped by the same date in the previous season. The gap of 6.24 MMT underscores a markedly slower export program so far this year.
Shipments in the first days of December amounted to 229 thousand tons, less than half the 480 thousand tons exported in early December 2024. This weaker start to the month raises questions over whether logistical issues, demand-side softness, or a structurally smaller exportable surplus are at play.
Export Breakdown by Crop
| Crop | 2025/26 Exports (MMT) | 2024/25 Exports (MMT) | Year/Year Change (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wheat | 7.334 | 9.078 | -1.744 |
| Corn | 3.878 | 7.600 | -3.722 |
| Barley | 1.195 | 1.865 | -0.670 |
| Rye | 0.0002 | 0.0108 | -0.0106 |
The slowdown is broad-based across major grains, with corn showing the steepest year-on-year decline in volume, followed by wheat and barley. Even rye exports, while small in absolute terms, have dropped sharply compared with last year.
Flour exports mirror this weaker trend, currently standing at 28.1 thousand tons versus 32.8 thousand tons at the same point a year earlier, hinting at softer downstream demand as well.
Freight Market Implications
The substantial reduction in export volumes, particularly for high-volume commodities like corn and wheat, is bearish for freight. Fewer cargoes translate into lower demand for Panamax and Handysize vessels loading in the Black Sea, easing tonnage tightness and putting downward pressure on spot freight rates.
With vessel owners facing weaker negotiating power, traders and logistics planners may find opportunities to secure more competitive ocean freight for remaining Black Sea programs. Market participants will be watching closely to determine whether this is a temporary lag—potentially recoverable later in the marketing year—or an indication of a structurally smaller export program for 2025/26.
Source: Market Data
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