- Recovery in exports: Combined palm oil exports from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand rose 1.4 MMT year-on-year to 36.4 MMT in Jan–Oct 2025, rebounding from an eight-year low.
- Shift in supply dynamics: Indonesia’s exports increased by 2.4 MMT YTD to 22.47 MMT, offsetting a 1.34 MMT YTD decline in Malaysian shipments to 12.73 MMT.
- Demand rebalancing: India’s palm oil imports fell sharply (Jan–Oct down 1.15 MMT to 6.18 MMT), while China’s purchases rose to 4.08 MMT YTD, with strong October buying.
- Implications for Black Sea sunoil: Weaker Indian demand for palm may open space for Black Sea sunflower oil, potentially supporting regional prices and freight demand from Black Sea ports to India.
SE Asian Palm Oil Export Recovery
Major Southeast Asian palm oil producers increased exports in the first ten months of 2025, signaling a recovery from last year’s multi-year low. Combined shipments from Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand reached 36.4 MMT in January–October 2025, up 1.4 MMT year-on-year.
| Exporter | Jan–Oct 2024 (MMT) | Jan–Oct 2025 (MMT) | Y/Y Change (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Indonesia | 20.07 | 22.47 | +2.40 |
| Malaysia | 14.07 | 12.73 | -1.34 |
| Indonesia, Malaysia & Thailand (combined) | 35.00 | 36.40 | +1.40 |
Indonesia led the recovery, exporting 22.47 MMT in January–October 2025, a year-on-year increase of 2.4 MMT. However, October exports slipped to 2.26 MMT from 2.55 MMT a year earlier, indicating some short-term softness. Malaysia moved in the opposite direction: its year-to-date exports declined to 12.73 MMT from 14.07 MMT, with October shipments also marginally lower at 1.69 MMT.
Shifting Demand: India vs China
| Importer | Oct 2024 Imports (tonnes) | Oct 2025 Imports (tonnes) | Jan–Oct 2024 (MMT) | Jan–Oct 2025 (MMT) | Y/Y Change (MMT) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| China | – | 577,000 | 3.91 | 4.08 | +0.17 |
| India | ~1,138,000 | 569,000 | 7.33 | 6.18 | -1.15 |
On the demand side, key buyers are diverging. China increased palm oil imports to 577,000 tonnes in October, lifting its year-to-date total to 4.08 MMT versus 3.91 MMT a year earlier. In contrast, India sharply reduced purchases: October imports fell by half year-on-year to 569,000 tonnes, and Jan–Oct intake dropped by 1.15 MMT to 6.18 MMT.
Implications for Black Sea Sunflower Oil
For the global vegetable oil complex, higher palm oil exports are broadly bearish, increasing overall supply and competition for soft oils, including Black Sea sunflower oil. However, the composition of demand is more important for the Black Sea region than the headline volume data.
India’s sharp pullback in palm oil imports could signal substitution towards other oils. If Indian refiners and buyers rotate part of this demand into sunflower oil, Black Sea exporters would see a supportive shift in fundamentals. This would likely be bullish for regional sunflower oil prices and could boost freight demand on Black Sea–India routes as cargo flows rebalance.
Traders should closely track Indian import tender activity and relative pricing between palm, sunoil, and soyoil. Any sustained increase in India’s sunflower oil inquiries or purchases would confirm that the current palm oil demand drop is translating into incremental demand for Black Sea-origin sunoil.
Source: Market Data
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