- Bullish (Logistics & Demand): Ukraine’s November agricultural exports rose 12% m/m to 5.0 MMT, signaling improved logistics and stronger demand for regional freight and port services.
- Bearish (Prices): Ample grain supply from Ukraine and the EU (EU total grain exports +14% y/y) adds downside pressure to global corn and wheat prices and is likely to cap near-term rallies.
- Competitive Flows: A 119% surge in EU barley and 305% jump in durum wheat exports intensify competition with Black Sea origins into MENA markets.
- Corn Dynamics: Weak EU corn exports (-37% y/y) could open space for Ukrainian corn to gain share, partially offsetting price weakness via higher volumes.
Ukrainian Export Momentum in November
Ukraine exported 5.0 MMT of agricultural products in November, up 12% from October, with all key categories posting gains. Grain shipments climbed 13% to 3.0 MMT, dominated by corn (61%), wheat (36%), and barley (3%). Oilcake exports led percentage growth, jumping 23% to 576.6 KMT on stronger domestic oilseed processing, while oilseed exports increased 14% to 507.7 KMT.
The pickup in volumes reflects improving logistical capacity and throughput at Ukrainian ports and alternative routes. While this supports regional freight and handling demand, the additional supply exerts bearish pressure on global corn and wheat markets as more Black Sea-origin grain becomes available.
EU Grain Export Performance 2025/26
From July 1 to December 2, 2025, EU grain and processed product exports reached 17.1 MMT, a 14% increase versus the same period a year earlier. The expansion is driven mainly by barley and durum wheat, which more than offset declines in soft wheat and corn shipments.
Morocco remains the leading destination for EU soft wheat with 1.74 MMT, while Saudi Arabia is the top buyer of EU barley at 971.0 KMT. These flows underline the EU’s strong competitive position in key Middle East and North Africa markets, especially in barley, where it directly challenges Black Sea exporters.
| Product | Export (tons) | % Change (y/y) |
|---|---|---|
| Soft Wheat | 9,662,180 | -5% |
| Durum Wheat | 938,508 | +305% |
| Total Wheat & Flour | 10,906,095 | +2% |
| Barley | 4,441,807 | +119% |
| Corn | 498,207 | -37% |
| Total Grain | 17,060,357 | +14% |
Note: Data for some EU member states remains incomplete, which may lead to later revisions.
Market Implications and Price Direction
Combined Ukrainian and EU export strength points to ample grain availability from Europe into the global market. This dynamic is typically bearish for international corn and wheat prices, as buyers enjoy broader origin choice and stronger bargaining power. At the same time, EU underperformance in corn exports (-37% y/y) offers room for Ukrainian corn to capture additional market share, especially in destinations looking to diversify away from EU supply.
For freight and logistics, higher Ukrainian flows underpin demand for regional shipping and port capacity, even if margins in the grain trade remain under pressure due to limited upside in flat prices. Overall, the current supply backdrop suggests any price rallies are likely to be capped unless disrupted by weather, logistics, or policy shocks.
Source: Market Data
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