Kazakhstan Wheat Exports Break Into Algerian Market

• New Trade Flow: Kazakhstan exported 390,000 MT of wheat to Algeria between January and November 2025, a sharp increase from negligible volumes in prior years.
• State Support: Government freight subsidies and diplomatic engagement underpinned the competitiveness of Kazakh wheat into North Africa.
• Market Impact: The entry of Kazakhstan into Algeria, a 9 MMT/year importer, adds a new state-backed competitor, posing a bearish, competitive factor for Black Sea and EU suppliers.
• Strategic Diversification: Kazakhstan is expanding beyond its traditional Central Asian markets, targeting larger, tender-based destinations like Algeria’s OAIC.

Kazakhstan Enters Algerian Wheat Market

Kazakhstan has secured a notable position in the Algerian wheat market, exporting 390,000 metric tons (MT) of wheat between January and November 2025. According to Kazakhstan’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs, this marks the establishment of a new and substantial trade route. Historically, Kazakh wheat exports to Algeria were minimal, totaling just 20,000 MT in the last two decades (with isolated shipments in 2007 and 2017).

This new flow, valued at over $100 million, was made possible by targeted state support. Freight subsidies reduced transportation costs on the long-haul route to North Africa, while high-level diplomatic efforts helped open the market. Throughout 2025, Kazakh officials held negotiations with Algeria’s state grain agency, the Algerian Office for Intersectoral Grains (OAIC), which oversees centralized import tenders. Kazakhstan’s Food Contract Corporation supplied wheat samples to OAIC, helping to satisfy quality and specification requirements and secure tenders.

Strategic and Market Implications

This development highlights Kazakhstan’s strategic effort to diversify export destinations beyond its traditional Central Asian buyers and neighboring markets. By leveraging freight subsidies, Kazakhstan can place its wheat competitively into a high-demand North African destination, improving utilization of export capacity and reducing reliance on regional trade flows.

For the wider Black Sea and Mediterranean wheat market, the move is a modest but clearly bearish, competitive factor. While 390,000 MT is only a small share of Algeria’s roughly 9 million MT of annual import demand, it introduces a new state-backed supplier into a key, price-sensitive tender market. This may increase price pressure in future OAIC tenders, potentially eroding market share and margins for established exporters such as Russia and EU member states.

Market participants should monitor whether Kazakhstan can maintain or expand these subsidized shipments over coming seasons. Sustained or higher volumes would reinforce competitive pressures in Algeria and could influence pricing dynamics across the broader Black Sea export complex.

Source: Market Data